Copper Prices Approach Record Highs, War Changes Everything!
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Global copper prices heated up again at the start of this week. According to Trading Economics data, copper rose to US$6.27 per pound on Monday (11/5/2026), strengthening 0.35% compared to the previous day.
In the last month, copper prices have surged 4.94%. Compared to the same period last year, the increase reaches 36.75%. The current level is also approaching the all-time high of US$6.58 per pound, which was achieved in January 2026.
Copper futures have moved above US$6.2 per pound and are nearing the record set at the end of January.
This rise comes as markets begin recalculating the need for industrial metals in the era of AI data centres, electricity grid modernisation, electric vehicles, and increasingly aggressive clean energy projects being built in various countries.
According to an S&P Global study in January 2026, global copper demand is projected to reach 42 million metric tonnes by 2040. That figure is about 50% higher than current demand. In the same period, supply faces pressure from mining production, processing, energy, and logistics.
The market is starting to see that copper issues have moved far from the usual cycle. The United States even designated copper as a critical material for national security in February 2025. The White House assesses that dependence on foreign supplies opens risks of market manipulation and supply chain disruptions.
These concerns arise because global production is highly concentrated. Six countries control about two-thirds of the world’s copper mine production. Meanwhile, China controls around 40% of global smelter capacity. Such a structure means that small disruptions in one region can quickly spread to international markets.
The latest pressure comes from China’s decision to halt sulphuric acid exports from May until at least December 2026.
This policy is estimated to eliminate around 3 million tonnes of global seaborne supply. The impact is significant because sulphuric acid is an essential material in the copper refining process. Countries like Chile, Indonesia, and India are the most affected.
Chile itself has faced production pressures even before the policy was announced. The country’s copper production fell around 6% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year. Goldman Sachs estimates that China’s sulphuric acid export ban could cut Chile’s copper production by around 200,000 tonnes, equivalent to 1% of global supply.
The situation is further complicated by the unresolved Middle East conflict. Disruptions in energy and shipping routes are starting to hit industrial metal production costs. The Strait of Hormuz is once again a focal point for markets because this route is crucial for global energy distribution. When diesel prices rise and fuel distribution is disrupted, mining operational costs also soar. Mining heavy equipment fleets, ore transportation, and logistics processes heavily rely on diesel.
Former US military commander and NovaRed Mining advisory board member Phil Ehr said the current pressures are starting to touch strategic national areas. According to him, around three-quarters of copper demand is related to electricity use. When supply tightens, the impact is quickly felt in power systems, communications, transportation, and defence infrastructure.
High prices at COMEX, the London Metal Exchange, and Shanghai are proof that pressure is occurring globally, not regionally. The United States is even starting to pay a premium price higher than other regions to secure supplies.
Governments of various countries are now beginning to change their approach. The previous focus on the cheapest costs is shifting to supply reliability. Major countries are starting to question whether global supply chains are still safe amid recurring geopolitical conflicts, trade wars, and energy tensions.