Cooperation isn't getting any easier

Cooperation isn't getting any easier

A conference of East Asian academics here next week will plonk Thailand in the middle of a fresh debate on the wisdom of 13 Asian countries converging in a new community. The discussions will show who continues to hold reservations about the idea, which evolved from Malaysia's initiative in the early 1990s to set up an East Asian economic caucus.

Thailand, officially, remains a fence-sitter, but its agreement to host the second annual conference of the Network of East Asian Think-Tanks, or NEAT, shows it is more than that.

Indonesia has been outspoken in its reservations about the proposed new community, seeing it as a potential threat to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which holds the primary role in the dialog with China, Japan and South Korea. Vietnam has been less clear about its doubts, likewise Singapore and Cambodia. But all the Northeast Asians are keen.

At the annual ASEAN meeting in Jakarta in early July, Malaysia returned the question to the regional agenda by proposing to host the first East Asian summit in 2005. China offered to do so in 2006. The United States, which fiercely opposed the East Asia Economic Caucus closely associated with the anti-West leaning of its champion, Malaysia's then Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, remains a consideration.

The backing of China and Japan for an East Asian community suggests that they are unhappy with the ASEAN-plus-Three process, specifically with ASEAN's primary role in it. Can ASEAN make the adjustments necessary to move the process forward? Is there another way to avoid relegation to the past? The pro-community advocates also indicate frustration with U.S. domination of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.

Although there is room for ASEAN-Plus-Three and the proposed East Asian community to co-exist, the leadership problems looming over the latter are disturbing.

Huge differences in politics, economics and culture may enable only informal exchanges for some time yet, unless members of the proposed community agree to liberal use of the minus X formula.

In an ideal world, ASEAN and the proposed new forum would be mutually supportive. In reality, mutually destructive competition must be avoided. -- Bangkok Post