Cooling Ahead of Eid al-Fitr, Global Oil Prices Gradually Decline!

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Global oil prices corrected during Friday morning’s trading (20/3/2026), ahead of the Eid al-Fitr 1447 H celebrations.

According to Refinitiv at 08:25 WIB, Brent crude oil was at US$105.69 per barrel, down from the previous close of US$108.65. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was recorded at US$94 per barrel, weakening from US$96.14.

In recent days, price movements have been highly volatile. On 19 March, Brent briefly touched US$119 per barrel, nearing its highest level in over three years, before a sharp correction.

WTI also breached US$100 before losing momentum at the end of the session. This directional shift reflects a market highly sensitive to geopolitical developments.

According to Reuters, the previous price surge was triggered by Iranian attacks on several energy facilities in the Gulf region, including gas infrastructure in Qatar as well as targets in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. These disruptions immediately sparked concerns over global supply, given that the region is a central hub for world energy production.

However, price pressures have begun to ease following signals of additional supply. The US government has opened the option to release strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) and is considering easing sanctions on detained Iranian oil, with potential additions of around 140 million barrels to the market. According to Again Capital analyst John Kilduff, this move is sufficient to temper the price rally, albeit temporarily.

At the same time, the global oil trade map is changing rapidly. Refineries in Asia are now diverting supply sources by increasing imports from the United States. Distribution routes are also shifting, with tanker ships from the Gulf of Mexico being redirected to Asia via the Panama Canal to expedite deliveries amid Middle East disruptions.

Ship tracking data shows at least several US crude oil shipments to South Korea and Japan now passing through Panama, albeit using smaller-sized vessels at higher per-barrel costs. According to Kpler analyst Matt Smith, this situation reflects the urgency of Asian buyers “scrambling for supply” amid uncertainty.

This shift is further reinforced by the US government’s emergency policy providing a 60-day relaxation of shipping rules (Jones Act). The policy allows foreign vessels to transport energy between US ports, which could ultimately increase traffic through the Panama Canal.

Although prices are currently correcting, the risk of surges has not fully dissipated. A Reuters report states that Saudi energy officials estimate oil prices could breach US$180 per barrel if supply disruptions persist until the end of April.