Continued Weakening: Rupiah Expected to Breach Rp 17,500 per US Dollar This Week

Jakarta, VIVA – The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar on spot market trading on Tuesday, 5 May 2026 at 10.17 WIB, was transacted at the level of Rp 17,430 per US dollar.

Economist and money market observer, Ibrahim Assuaibi, predicts that the rupiah exchange rate this week is likely to truly reach the level of Rp 17,550 per US dollar.

“Regarding the rupiah’s weakening above Rp 17,400, my own target for this week is Rp 17,550, which is very likely to be achieved,” said Ibrahim to the media on Tuesday, 5 May 2026.

He explained that one of the causes is the renewed outbreak of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, with attacks by the United States (US) against Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz.

This occurred after US President Donald Trump previously instructed the US Navy in the Sea of Oman to take control of the Strait of Hormuz, which was previously controlled by Iran.

In fact, Trump himself stated that the American forces are like pirates. This means that ships exiting the Strait of Hormuz will be pirated and controlled by them, resulting in Iran suffering losses of nearly US$5 billion.

On the other hand, Trump also wants ships currently stalled in the Strait of Hormuz to resume normal sailing, allowing them to enter and exit international waters without any fees.

“This is what is causing the latest tension because more than five small Iranian warships were bombed and destroyed. This creates its own tension in the Middle East,” he said.

In addition, continued Ibrahim, another factor weakening the rupiah is Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, which have caused a roughly 10 percent decline in production at those refineries. As a result, this has impacted the strengthening of crude oil prices, both Brent and WTI crude oil.

“These are external factors that are causing the rupiah to experience quite significant weakening,” he said.