Consumption Remains Robust, Indonesian Economy Projected to Grow 5.36% in Early 2026
JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Amid unrelenting global pressures, Indonesia’s economic momentum in early 2026 is expected to remain steady. The key factor is solid household consumption.
A research report from BRI Danareksa Sekuritas, released on Monday (13/4/2026), projects Indonesia’s economic growth to reach 5.36% year-on-year (yoy) in the first quarter of 2026.
“We note that the potential for good GDP figures could provide some relief. We estimate Indonesia’s GDP growth at around 5.36% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026,” the report states.
According to the research, domestic economic resilience is the main pillar, particularly from the household consumption side, which remains strong from January to March 2026.
“Especially up to February, as reflected in stable retail activity and healthy consumer sentiment. This indicates that purchasing power continues to support overall economic activity,” the report adds.
In addition to consumption, investment is also showing signs of improvement. This is evident from the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in expansive territory, signalling improving business activity and a gradual recovery in capital expenditure.
Government spending in the early part of the year is also providing an additional boost. A more even spending pattern is seen as helping to avoid budget accumulation at year-end while strengthening growth from the start.
This figure is even higher than the same period last year, reflecting sustained public confidence.
“The index remains in expansive territory, indicating that sentiment still supports consumption. More importantly, average confidence in the first quarter of 2026 is still higher than in the first quarter of 2025, showing that overall sentiment has improved,” the report states.
Nevertheless, risks continue to loom. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are beginning to drive up global energy prices, potentially increasing economic costs towards the end of the first quarter.
However, the impact is deemed to depend on the duration of the conflict and government policy responses.
It even projects that economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 could reach 5.5 to 6%.
Amid concerns over the Iran conflict that could push up global oil prices, the government has prepared several scenarios. In the worst-case simulation, oil prices are estimated to hit 92 US dollars per barrel.
However, the government has not seen the urgency to change the 2026 state budget assumptions because the price surge is considered temporary.
“If we look at the debt-to-GDP ratio, we are safe. From the deficit-to-GDP perspective, we are safe. Growth, we are safe. In fact, we have the highest growth in the G20 at 5.11% last year,” said Purbaya at the Ministry of Finance on Friday (6/3/2026).