Consumer Confidence Index Declines, Bank Indonesia Provides Explanation
Bank Indonesia (BI) forecasts that retail sales performance in March 2026 will remain positively growing. This is reflected in the Real Sales Index (IPR) for March 2026, projected to grow by 2.4 per cent year-on-year (yoy).
“The retail sales performance is mainly supported by growth in sales of the spare parts and accessories group, the food, beverages, and tobacco group, as well as the cultural and recreational goods group,” said the Head of BI’s Communication Department, Ramdan Denny Prakoso, in his statement, quoted on Tuesday (14/4/2026).
On a monthly or month-to-month (mtm) basis, retail sales in March 2026 are estimated to grow by 9.3 per cent (mtm). This projection figure is higher than the growth in February 2026, which was 4.1 per cent (mtm).
“The increase is driven by the performance of the majority of groups, particularly the information and communication equipment group, the motor vehicle fuel group, and the clothing sub-group in line with the increase in household demand during the National Religious Holiday (HBKN) period of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr 1447 Hijriyah,” he explained.
It was recorded that in February 2026, the IPR grew by 6.5 per cent (yoy), higher than the IPR in January 2026 at 5.7 per cent (yoy). This growth was supported by increased sales in the majority of groups, particularly the spare parts and accessories group, the food, beverages, and tobacco group, as well as the clothing sub-group.
On a monthly basis, retail sales in February 2026 grew by 4.1 per cent (mtm), an increase compared to the previous month, which was in a contraction phase of 2.7 per cent (mtm). The increase was supported by sales performance in the spare parts and accessories group, the food, beverages, and tobacco group, as well as the clothing sub-group in line with the rise in public demand during the Ramadan period.
“From the price side, inflationary pressure over the next three months, i.e., May 2026, is estimated to increase, while over the next six months, i.e., August 2026, it is estimated to be relatively stable,” Denny continued.
This is reflected in the General Price Expectations Index (IEH) for May 2026 at 157.4, higher than the IEH for April 2026 at 153.9, in line with the rise in raw material prices. Meanwhile, the IEH for August 2026 is estimated at 157.2, relatively stable compared to the IEH for July 2026 at 157.1.
Previously, BI recorded the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) for March 2026 at 122.9. This figure is at an optimistic level (index > 100), but lower than the IKK for the previous month at 125.2, despite the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr 1447 Hijriyah/2026 CE moments.
The IKK for March 2026 is influenced by confidence in the current economic conditions and over the next six months. The Current Economic Conditions Index (IKE) and Consumer Expectations Index (IEK) were recorded at 115.4 and 130.4, respectively.
Although at an optimistic level (index > 100), consumer perceptions of current economic conditions or IKE in March 2026 are lower than the previous month at 115.9. The IEK figure for March 2026 is also lower than the index for the previous month at 134.4.