Conflict Widens: How Long Can Iran Sustain the War?

Ali Larijani, Secretary-General of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on the third day of the US-Israel war against Iran that Tehran has prepared for a long war, in contrast to Washington. He reiterated a line repeatedly voiced by Islamic Republic officials since the conflict began: “We will defend ourselves, at whatever the cost.” Since 28 February, the United States and Israel have launched a large, coordinated military strike against Iran, targeting Iranian leaders as well as military facilities and government buildings. Despite the deaths of several senior Iranian officials, the Tehran regime has so far withstood the onslaught. In retaliation, Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel and Gulf states, including US military bases scattered across the region. The United Arab Emirates said that in recent days hundreds of rockets and drones from Iran had been directed at its territory. Admiral Brad Cooper, head of United States Central Command, stated that by Wednesday 4 March, Iran had fired more than 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones. He accuses Tehran of indiscriminate attacks that threaten civilians. “We do not know exactly how many ballistic missiles and drones Iran really possesses,” said a weapons expert who asked not to be named to DW. Iran’s war machine On the first day of the war, Saturday 28 February, Israel estimated Iran possessed around 2,500 ballistic missiles. That figure is believed to have fallen sharply—not only because Iran fired missiles at various targets in the region, but also due to joint US-Israeli strikes that destroyed and stockpiled ammunition storage sites. Satellite imagery circulating on social media showed strikes on missile bases in Kermanshah, Karaj, Khorramabad, and northern Tabriz. Photos depicted a tunnel door leading to underground storage facilities that collapsed, suspected as a result of the latest strikes. A weapons expert assessed that the pursuit of mobile missile launchers is intensifying. “What was very difficult five years ago is now possible thanks to advances in technology,” he said. “Yet it remains unclear how many launcher systems were truly destroyed.” It remains unclear how many missiles have been moved from the attacked facilities and dispersed to various locations inside Iran before the war, or how many launchers remain functional. The Israeli military on Wednesday 4 March warned that Iran still retains significant capability to launch missile strikes against Israel, even as launch facilities in the Islamic Republic continue to be targeted. Iran is also believed to be able to ramp up drone production rapidly. Based on leaked Russian documents, Tehran is estimated to be able to produce around 5,000 drones per month. The drones can be launched from a simple iron frame that can be assembled within hours. One of the widely used drones, Shahed, reportedly costs only a few thousand dollars per unit. In comparison, a Patriot intercept missile made by the United States can cost up to $3 million. The New York Times analysis combining satellite imagery and verified video shows that over the weekend into Monday 2 March, Iran used short-range missiles and drones to strike at least seven US military bases in the Middle East. The strikes damaged some communications facilities and radar systems at or around bases. The US military’s communications infrastructure remains highly classified, making it difficult to determine which systems were affected. However, the pattern of attacks indicates Tehran is attempting to disrupt the United States’ military communications and coordination. Impact of the war on civilians and regional stability “Iran will try to prolong the war and is playing with time,” said Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, to DW. According to Gerges, Iran’s leadership has had time to plan and coordinate its military moves. “I see them preparing for a long war,” he said. He added that the regime’s main aim is resilience, the ability to endure, absorb attacks, and continue the resistance. Meanwhile, the burden of the war has fallen hardest on ordinary Iranians who are powerless to resist. Although the United States and Israel claim to be conducting targeted strikes, the level of additional damage remains high, particularly in densely populated urban areas. Iranian sources reported that a primary school in Minab, southern Iran, was hit on the first day of the conflict. On Tuesday 3 March, state media aired footage of mass graves of 168 children and teachers said to be casualties. The United Nations described the incident as “truly shocking” and called for an investigation. Israel denied hitting the school, which is located about 40 kilometres from the Gulf of Oman. The United States, which has deployed two carrier strike groups in the region, said it would investigate the reports.