Comparing the 1998 Monetary Crisis, the 2020 Pandemic, and the Economy Today!

The current global situation remains overshadowed by uncertainty, particularly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that show no signs of abating. The conflict between the United States (US) and Israel against Iran is keeping energy prices, especially global oil prices, at high levels and emerging as a new source of concern for the global economy. Many parties believe that if this condition persists for too long, the risk of an economic crisis is not impossible. Therefore, it is interesting to examine how Indonesia’s macroeconomic indicators stand today compared to the crisis periods it has experienced, from the 1998 crisis to the shocks during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Notes: - For the year 1998 specifically, records were still using the April-March fiscal year, so the 1998/1999 state budget refers to the period from 1 April 1998 to 31 March 1999, not January-December. Thus, some 1998 figures need to be read in the context of the fiscal year, not the pure calendar year. - For the 1998 interest rates, the indicator used was also different from today. During that period, the reference was the 1-month Bank Indonesia Certificate (SBI). - The Q1-2026 economic growth figure in this table is the government’s assumption/projection of 5.5%, as stated by the Ministry of Finance. - The crude oil lifting in Q1-2026 in this table is the 2026 state budget macro assumption, namely a target of 610 thousand barrels per day. - Data on bank credit growth, banking capital adequacy (CAR), and non-performing loans (NPL) for Q1-2026 use the latest data as of February 2026. CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH