Coal Prices Soaring Again, Now Breaching US$145.2 per Tonne

Global coal prices have surged to their highest level in over a year. According to Refinitiv, the Newcastle benchmark closed at US$145.2 per tonne on Thursday (19/3/2026), up from US$128.7 at the beginning of the month.

The increase occurred in a short time. On 10 March, the price was still at US$131.1. Two days later, it rose to US$138.75. It dipped slightly to around US$135, then strengthened again to US$139.35 on 18 March. The close at US$145.2 marks the highest since November 2024.

This movement follows pressures from the global energy market. Conflicts in the Middle East are disrupting major distribution routes. Threats to close the Strait of Hormuz are pushing oil prices back above US$100 per barrel. At the same time, Qatar’s LNG production has stopped. Around 20% of global LNG supply has vanished from the market.

These disruptions are directly altering energy consumption patterns. Power plants are losing access to large volumes of gas. The spot market has become expensive and hard to reach. Utilities are switching to available fuels. Coal becomes the choice because it can be used immediately without major adjustments.

The impact is felt in Asia. Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore, which rely on LNG, are competing for spot market supplies. According to The New York Times, prices are surging due to inter-country competition. Developing countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh are being pushed out of the market and face blackout risks.

Energy policies are changing within weeks. Thailand is running coal-fired power plants at full capacity and rolling out subsidies. Taiwan and South Korea are reactivating old plants to maintain electricity supply. Short-term energy needs are taking priority.

While demand is rising, global supply is not entirely loose.

Indonesia, as the world’s largest exporter, is facing delays in RKAB approvals.

Several mining companies have not yet obtained full production quotas by mid-March.

This situation has restrained production since the beginning of the year. Companies cannot operate optimally because permits are not fully issued. In the short term, this reduces the volume entering the export market.

The Indonesian government is also signalling tighter distribution. Coal is prioritised for domestic needs, especially to support domestic industry expansion. With Indonesia’s share accounting for around 50% of global trade, every policy adjustment is directly felt in the international market.

There are additional factors amplifying supply risks. The current annual permitting scheme makes administrative processes more frequent. Meanwhile, the interim transition policy allowing limited production before full permits are issued has a time limit. If approvals are not completed soon, production could be held back again.

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) targets the completion of mineral and coal mining (minerba) RKAB approvals for this year by the end of March 2026.

Director General of Mineral and Coal (Dirjen Minerba) of the Ministry of ESDM, Tri Winarno, assured that his side will accelerate and meet that deadline.

“The target remains end of March. Both companies and the government are actively involved,” said Tri when met at the Ministry of ESDM office in Jakarta on Tuesday (17/3/2026).

He noted that by mid-month, the government has approved this year’s coal RKAB for nearly 400 million tonnes of coal and over 100 million tonnes for nickel.

The combination of RKAB delays and domestic priorities is making global supply space even tighter. As demand rises due to the energy crisis, the market is losing flexibility on the supply side.

Global demand itself was already on an upward trend before the crisis. International Energy Agency (IEA) data shows consumption increasing over the past two years, with India and Southeast Asia as drivers. The current situation is accelerating that rise due to limited energy alternatives.

Consumption is increasing faster after the gas disruptions. Supply is moving tighter from the major exporters’ side. Room for price declines is limited as long as this condition persists.

In the short term, the market direction is still influenced by the Middle East situation. As long as oil and gas flows have not recovered, power plants will remain dependent on coal. Prices are at high levels with volatility still open.