Coal Prices Dip, Influenced by Oil and Extreme Weather Factors

Coal prices experienced a slight correction after previously surging significantly. Based on the latest data update at 07.10 WIB, the benchmark coal price closed at US$137.75 per tonne, or a marginal 0.04% decline in Thursday’s trading (30/4/2026). This drop came after prices had rocketed by up to 3% on Wednesday. Wednesday’s closing level marked the highest since 6 April 2026, or over three weeks ago. The fluctuations in coal prices are primarily influenced by the dynamics of global oil price movements, trade barriers in the Strait of Hormuz region, and the potential for heatwaves. Regarding oil price movements, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contract is currently at US$105.55 per barrel. Meanwhile, the global benchmark Brent crude is recorded at US$111.31 per barrel. Coal price sentiment is also heavily influenced by threats of extreme weather. Various strategic regions such as China, India, and Europe are currently anticipating heatwaves during the summer season, expected to last from May to August. Europe is now facing very serious challenges in its energy sector. Citing a Montel News report, scientists and policymakers in the European Union have warned that the current situation has entered a “worst-case scenario”, given its direct pressure on energy production. Heatwaves, prolonged dry seasons, and shrinking snow cover are placing heavy strain on hydropower plant operations due to drastically reduced water flows. Reduced water resources are also disrupting cooling systems for power plants, while rising air temperatures increase the risk of damage to electrical infrastructure. In Asia, the coal market dynamics in China show varied short-term trends. Coking coal prices recorded gains ahead of the long holiday, supported by restocking activities from steel mills amid tight supplies. However, this increase is not yet fully solid due to selective demand. At the same time, thermal coal prices surged due to buying actions by power plants, though the market remains cautious about potential price corrections post-holiday. Meanwhile, reports from India indicate that non-coking coal stocks at major ports rose slightly by 2.1% in week 17 (ending 25 April) to 14.60 million tonnes. This suggests that supplies remain adequate amid softening demand. Overall, current market sentiment is still dominated by caution, with buyers tending to transact selectively according to their respective operational needs.