China's Population Is Aging, the World Must Be Wary

China is starting to confront an ageing population, as it already has done by other East Asian economies such as Japan. The country, the world’s second-most populous nation, faces the bitter pill of a difficult demographic regeneration. China’s population is at risk as marriage rates decline and the current cohort grows older.

Authorities have already launched pro-natalist policies to boost births and population growth, but these measures have failed to gain widespread traction. A pro-natalist policy is a series of government measures intended to raise birth rates and population growth.

In 1950, nearly a quarter of China’s population (24.5%) was aged 0-9. By 2024, that share had fallen to 9.9%, and by 2100 it is projected to shrink to 5%. Meanwhile, the number of people aged 80 and over is expected to soar.

In the mid-20th century, China was a young country. High fertility levels, exceeding six births per woman in the 1950s, produced a broad population pyramid.

The introduction of the one-child policy in 1980 abruptly changed the country’s demographic direction. Intended to curb uncontrolled population growth, the policy accelerated a decline in birth rates well below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.

Even after the policy was scrapped in 2015, birth rates continued to fall. China’s population declined for the third year running in 2025, with new births at the lowest level in recorded history.

Unlike many Western economies, China’s fertility rate fell to a very low level before the country had fully developed. This means the country is experiencing rapid ageing without a comparable per-capita wealth cushion seen in places like Japan or Germany.

By 2100, projections show that almost 40% of China’s population will be aged 60 or above. The working-age group will shrink while the number of pensioners grows, creating concerns about labour shortages, pension fund sustainability, and slower economic growth.

In recent years, the Chinese government has rolled out subsidies for the elderly, tax relief, housing incentives, and even framed having children as a “national duty”.

However, to date, financial incentives have struggled to offset structural forces such as high housing costs, intense educational competition, urbanisation, and changing social norms.

It remains unclear whether China can meaningfully alter its demographic trajectory. But one thing is clear from the data: the age structure of the country in 2100 will be far different from the youthful nation it was in 1950.