China's Bulk Purchase of US Soybeans Adds 2 Million Tonnes: Is Indonesia's Tempeh and Tofu Safe?

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - A surge in China’s soybean imports is expected to occur again in 2026-2027. However, the additional approximately 2 million tonnes is deemed unlikely to shake the global soybean market as it did a few years ago, although it still poses a potential for domestic price increases.

Secretary General of the Indonesian Tempeh and Tofu Producers Cooperative Union (Gakoptindo), Wibowo Nur Cahyo, stated that this increase in China’s soybean imports is relatively small compared to the massive surge in 2022, which had pressured supplies and driven up soybean prices in Indonesia.

“In 2022, China’s soybean demand was quite large. It disrupted the imported soybean supply entering Indonesia and impacted the rising prices of soybeans we buy from importers,” Wibowo told CNBC Indonesia on Wednesday (25/3/2026).

He explained that during that period, China’s import increase even reached 20 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the current projection for the increase in soybean imports by the Land of the Bamboo Curtain is only around 2 million tonnes.

“So, if it’s an increase of 2 million tonnes, that’s only 10% of the 2022 situation,” he said.

Given this condition, Wibowo assessed that the additional demand from China will not yet disrupt soybean supplies to Indonesia. Moreover, stocks in the United States (US), the main supplier, are currently abundant.

“If now, actually they (the US) are overstocked (with excess supply). America is overstocked at the moment,” he mentioned.

He also emphasised that the rise in China’s imports will not have a significant impact on the availability of domestic soybean supplies.

“In my estimation, it won’t disrupt. It won’t disrupt (domestic supplies) in my estimation,” he said.

Nevertheless, Wibowo warned of the potential for price increases. He estimated that soybean prices could rise, although not as high as the 2022 surge.

“Even if there is a price increase, it might be around 10%,” Wibowo stated.

According to him, soybean price increases are not only influenced by China’s demand but also by several other factors. These include global price movements at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar, and geopolitical conditions.

“Because the factors influencing soybean price rises include several elements. There’s the CBOT factor in America with increases, then the rising dollar price, domestic political economy factors, foreign political economy factors, and finally supply and demand,” he explained.

He added that the current global geopolitical situation is also a concern, particularly the conflict in the Middle East which could drive up logistics costs.

“The main burdening factor right now is the Israel, America, and Iran war. That’s the main factor,” he said.

“If it disrupts the oil price side, it will rise. Whereas shipping from America to Indonesia naturally uses ships and requires quite high fuel oil,” he continued.

Meanwhile, data on soybean prices at the tempeh and tofu artisan level shows a relatively high and varying trend across regions. As of 18 March 2026, soybean prices at the artisan cooperatives ranged from Rp9,700 to Rp12,000 per kg, with the majority in the Rp10,000-Rp10,800 per kg range.

For example, in West Java, soybean prices ranged from Rp10,100-Rp10,400 per kg, while in Jakarta they reached Rp10,400-Rp10,700 per kg. In some areas like West Sumatra, they even hit Rp12,000 per kg.

Although prices are already relatively high, tempeh and tofu artisans are said to still be able to survive without raising product selling prices. The strategy employed is to adjust sizes.

“The thickness, usually tofu is 3 cm thick, might become 2.8 cm, or 2.5 cm, or tempeh that was 2 cm thick could become 1.8 cm. That definitely happens,” Wibowo said.

He emphasised that this approach is the main way artisans maintain consumer purchasing power.

“So the trick is just to adjust the thickness,” he said.

In terms of margins, artisans still have some room although profits are starting to erode. “If soybean prices rise, the profit that was Rp1,000 might become Rp800,” he added.

However, Wibowo warned of a tolerance limit for artisans. If soybean prices surge too high, the option to request government intervention will re-emerge.

“But it’s different if soybeans reach prices above Rp12,000 per kg, then we will voice it, ask for subsidies and so on,” he asserted.

For now, he assured that the situation is still far from that threshold.

“Still far, very far. The situation is still very far,” he said.

For information, World-Grain citing the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that China will increase its soybean imports in the 2026-2027 period, in line with the surge in meal needs for livestock feed in that country.

China will import 108 million tonnes of soybeans in that period, up around 2 million tonnes from the 2025-2026 period.

The increase in demand in the aquaculture sector is a driving factor behind the rising soybean meal needs in China.

This news comes after the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, in October 2025. One of the outcomes was China continuing to purchase US soybeans. As of February 2026, China has bought 10.8 million tonnes of US soybeans out of a total commitment of 12 million tonnes.