China looks to extend reach south with ASEAN meet

China looks to extend reach south with ASEAN meet

Lindsay Beck
Reuters/Beijing

It may be criticized as little more than a talking shop, but
participation in the ASEAN Regional Forum this week will be a
chance for China to assert its influence with its neighbors to
the south.

After decades of suspicion toward multilateral organizations,
analysts say China's leaders have realized participation can be a
tool to stamp its footprint on the region -- and to check that of
the United States and Japan.

"It's the realization that if you are proactive you are
actually able to shape the ... agenda much better than if you are
simply reactive," said Jurgen Haacke, a Southeast Asia specialist
at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

With China feeling encircled by U.S. troops in Central Asia,
its security alliance with Japan and by Washington's commitment
to defend Taiwan, it is eager to stake out a role in Southeast
Asia.

And with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice a no-show at the
annual gathering and the participation of Japanese Foreign
Minister Nobutaka Machimura still a question mark, Chinese
Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing will have just the chance at the
Laos meeting to play the great power role China is seeking.

But analysts say he will be careful to play that part in a way
that doesn't threaten countries in the 10-member Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc, whose collective population
of 600 million is dwarfed by China's 1.3 billion.

"China is part of the ASEAN process, but in a way which gives
maximum face to the original ASEAN players. It goes out of its
way to allay the fears ASEAN may have toward China," said a
Beijing-based diplomat. "China is a giant by comparison."

For China, the game is not only about influence, but trade.

Trade between China and ASEAN reached more than US$100 billion
last year, up 30 percent from 2003. The two are working toward a
free trade area, with China after energy and natural resources to
feed its economic boom and Southeast Asia happy to have a willing
buyer.

"ASEAN countries are concerned about China's increasing
competitiveness, but they are also aware of it as a great
opportunity," said Sheng Lijun, convener of the ASEAN-China Study
Program based in Singapore.

With stability in the region and friendly relations key to
accessing its oil and gas reserves, Beijing has signed a raft of
friendship treaties and non-aggression pacts with its countries
over the past few years.

In March, state oil firms in China, the Philippines and
Vietnam signed a deal for a joint marine study in the South China
Sea, including the disputed Spratly Islands, that the three hope
will provide a model for oil development in the area.

Security in the Malacca Strait is also a perennial issue at
the regional forum, with almost all oil imports to China and
Japan passing through the narrow sea lane.

But if economic cooperation seems like a win-win scenario,
analysts say the countries of ASEAN are still wary of the
prospect of an elephant the size of China running roughshod in
its backyard.

"Although China is becoming more friendly than before, ASEAN
countries still need a balancing power in the region," said
Samuel Ku, a visiting research fellow at Singapore's East Asia
Institute.

"The United States is still showing up to balance China's
development in this area," he said.