China cautious about Taiwan for now

China cautious about Taiwan for now

By Ellis Joffe

ANN ARBOR, Michigan, United States: China will attack the island it regards as a rebel province only if Taiwan's leaders declare independence formally and separate irrevocably from the mainland.

A number of compulsions drive China's leaders: nationalism, the link between Taiwan and their political legitimacy, relations between conservatives and reformers in the Chinese leadership and the military's stand.

If Taiwan made a formal break, China's leaders would not be able to tolerate the affront to national honor and the challenge to sovereignty. A military response would probably come quickly.

China's leaders would also not tolerate Taiwan's indefinite rejection of Beijing's demands for negotiations on the basis of the "one-China" principle.

But in this case, the Chinese could postpone action until they are ready.

If they decided to attack, the damage to China's economic development, international standing and regional relations would be incalculable. Given such consequences, they would settle for nothing less than total achievement of their objectives.

In contrast to previous crises over Taiwan, these would presumably be unlimited: to bring about the unconditional surrender of Taiwan's leaders to China's demands, or to conquer the island and eliminate its leaders. Military courses of action would be tailored to such ends.

Only three options seem feasible: blockading Taiwan's sea- lanes, missile attacks and amphibious invasion.

China has to assume that the United States will intervene.

First, because of Washington's dispatch of two carrier groups to the vicinity of Taiwan in 1996, which ended China's menacing missile tests around the island and defused the crisis.

Second, because of the NATO bombardment of Yugoslavia in the Kosovo crisis, which Beijing still sees as being driven by America's quest to become the world superpower.

If China took military action against Taiwan, it would not do so believing that it could deter U.S. intervention. Drawing a lesson from the NATO attack on Yugoslavia, it would calculate that it could withstand limited bombardment by the U.S., which would be restrained by its allies and public opinion.

All of China's options contain a high degree of uncertainty. A blockade could involve submarine attacks and stopping ships physically or deterring them by mining sea-lanes, or threatening to fire missiles.

The effects of such actions would certainly undermine Taiwan's economy, or even destroy it if enforced effectively for a long period. What is uncertain is the ability of the Chinese navy and air force to sustain a blockade.

Missile strikes would devastate Taiwan's strategic centers and cause heavy suffering. One uncertainty would be the U.S. response. Another would be the resolve of Taiwan's population.

An amphibious invasion is unrealistic now because of China's military deficiencies, Taiwan's strong defense posture and U.S. power.

The Chinese armed forces are training for such an invasion. Military commanders are acquiring modern weapons systems designed to increase sea-lift capabilities and upgrade air and naval support. But it will take a decade or so before the Chinese are reasonably ready to undertake such a vast operation.

The most likely option seems to be missile strikes. It is, however, extremely risky. China cannot afford to fail. Once it begins such strikes, it will have to continue until Taiwan surrendered.

If the combination of Taiwan's determination and U.S. intervention precludes an early surrender, Beijing will have to extend bombardment until it wreaks havoc on the population and destroyed the island.

Even if it can pull this off, the price will be enormous.

Pending major advances in its capabilities, the Chinese military is not likely to recommend large-scale operations. It will threaten to use force and might carry out low-intensity actions to back up the threats.

But it will stop short of starting a war that would be open- ended and for which the Chinese armed forces are not ready.

That is the logical conclusion. If, however, China feels intolerably provoked by the political moves of Taiwan's leadership, logic could not be counted on to prevail.

The writer, a professor of Chinese studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and currently on leave at the University of Michigan, contributed this comment to the International Herald Tribune.

-- The Straits Times/Asia News Network