China and Taiwan

China and Taiwan

It is good that Taiwan and China are trying to settle their
differences by exchanging letters through The Jakarta Post. China
suspects that Taiwan's assertiveness -- by electing a president
by the ballot box -- is a step toward independence. So China had
its People's Liberation Army "test" some missiles in Taiwan's
direction.

I approach the problem from a different perspective. The heart
of the matter is succession in mainland China, not in Taiwan. The
saber-rattling message is: Taipei should keep away from China's
succession. Taipei may play kingmaker because it has a stake in
the outcome of China's succession. It is crucial to Taiwan. Its
investment there is put at US$20 billion.

A new Chinese leader could invade the island. He could
encourage the withdrawal of Taiwanese investment. Let's not
forget that Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council keep a close watch
on Deng Xiaoping's health and has knowledge of what is going on
in Beijing.

Taiwan has deep-pockets and has used them. To gain favor it
goes around the world buying support. It is not new to have a
deep-pocket neighbor playing kingmaker. Latin American countries
know it. Just recently Helmut Kohl visited Moscow throwing his
weight behind Yeltsin. These are games nations play.

Even Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew could not solve the problem in
his visit last August to China and Taiwan. I wonder what
Confucius would suggest. Probably the old sage would advise the
leaders of both countries to strike a deal: Taiwan stops
influencing the succession in mainland China. China assures
Taiwan that the next Chinese leader would respect the island's
integrity and would keep hands off Taiwan's investment there.

OSVALDO COELHO

Bandung, West Java