China and Taiwan

China and Taiwan

It is good that Taiwan and China are trying to settle their differences by exchanging letters through The Jakarta Post. China suspects that Taiwan's assertiveness -- by electing a president by the ballot box -- is a step toward independence. So China had its People's Liberation Army "test" some missiles in Taiwan's direction.

I approach the problem from a different perspective. The heart of the matter is succession in mainland China, not in Taiwan. The saber-rattling message is: Taipei should keep away from China's succession. Taipei may play kingmaker because it has a stake in the outcome of China's succession. It is crucial to Taiwan. Its investment there is put at US$20 billion.

A new Chinese leader could invade the island. He could encourage the withdrawal of Taiwanese investment. Let's not forget that Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council keep a close watch on Deng Xiaoping's health and has knowledge of what is going on in Beijing.

Taiwan has deep-pockets and has used them. To gain favor it goes around the world buying support. It is not new to have a deep-pocket neighbor playing kingmaker. Latin American countries know it. Just recently Helmut Kohl visited Moscow throwing his weight behind Yeltsin. These are games nations play.

Even Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew could not solve the problem in his visit last August to China and Taiwan. I wonder what Confucius would suggest. Probably the old sage would advise the leaders of both countries to strike a deal: Taiwan stops influencing the succession in mainland China. China assures Taiwan that the next Chinese leader would respect the island's integrity and would keep hands off Taiwan's investment there.

OSVALDO COELHO

Bandung, West Java