Celios Predicts 5.05% Economic Growth Thanks to Eid al-Fitr Season
Jakarta (ANTARA) - Executive Director of the Center of Economics and Law Studies (Celios), Bhima Yudhistira, predicts that economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 will reach 5.05% thanks to the seasonal factors of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr 1447 H.
“Economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 is estimated at 5.05%, influenced by the seasonal Ramadan-Lebaran factors,” Bhima said when contacted by ANTARA in Jakarta on Wednesday.
Fundamentally, Bhima stated, economic growth in the first three months of 2026 will be able to exceed its projection of 5.05%.
However, he sees several challenges that will make household consumption relatively more limited.
The first trigger is the public’s decision to hold back their Eid holiday bonuses (THR) for spending and instead allocate them as savings.
This tendency is likely influenced by concerns over surging energy and food prices after Eid.
Meanwhile, restrained public spending is likely to hold back the pace of economic growth.
In response to these challenges, Bhima suggests that the government should focus on controlling inflation during the homecoming period so that people feel more confident in spending their THR.
The next hindering factor is the return migration of people, which is estimated to be not yet optimal due to limited job opportunities in cities.
Usually, Bhima explained, job seekers take advantage of the Eid al-Fitr moment to migrate to cities. Therefore, Bhima encourages the government to intensify job creation so that the number of returnees grows higher and of better quality.
In addition to these two challenges, Bhima also believes the government can optimise economic growth during the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr season through support for the tourism sector.
“Seasonally, homecoming provides a boost to the tourism sector, but going forward, more aggressive promotion to new tourist destinations is needed so that the length of stay is longer,” he said.
The government targets national economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 to be in the range of 5.5% to 5.6% (year-on-year/yoy).
This target is driven by accelerated state spending, fiscal stimulus, and strengthening people’s purchasing power, especially during the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr period.
To maintain people’s purchasing power and boost economic growth, the government has launched an economic stimulus package in the first quarter of 2026.
One of them is transport incentives for Eid homecoming in the form of a 30% discount on train tickets, 30% on sea transport, 100% on ferry services, and a 17-18% reduction on flight tickets.