Ceasefire or Total War? The Five-Day Delay Puzzle of Trump's Attack on Iran's Heart
The United States and Iran are scheduled to hold talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, this weekend. The meeting will address strategic issues such as Iran’s missile programme, militias linked to the Islamic Republic, and security guarantees for the country.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi revealed this in an interview with the Italian daily Corriere della Sera on Wednesday (25/3). According to Grossi, this round of talks will be broader than previous negotiations.
“This time, the discussions will also cover missiles, militias linked to the Islamic Republic, and security guarantees for Iran,” Grossi said.
He mentioned the possibility of agreeing on a temporary solution, though it does not have to be military in nature. Grossi explained that there is an alternative diplomatic plan allowing for two simultaneous approaches: first, a temporary halt to uranium enrichment due to the current political, military, and trust conditions that are not yet conducive; second, the issue will be reviewed in five to ten years’ time.
Bloody Escalation Since 28 February
This dialogue comes amid a fierce escalation that has been ongoing since 28 February, when the United States and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran. The strikes are reported to have killed more than 1,340 people, including Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran retaliated with drone and missile attacks targeting Israel as well as areas in Jordan, Iraq, and Gulf countries hosting US military assets. The counterattacks resulted in casualties, infrastructure damage, and significant disruptions to global markets and international aviation.
Trump Orders Five-Day Delay of Attacks
Amid rising tensions, US President Donald Trump stated on Monday (23/3) that he had ordered a five-day delay for all attacks on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure.
Trump made the decision citing that his side had held “very good and productive” talks with Tehran over the past two days regarding a complete and total resolution to hostilities in the Middle East, as he posted on his social media platform, Truth Social.
Trump added that based on the “tone and content of these in-depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, which will continue throughout the week,” he had instructed the Department of Defense to postpone all military strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, contingent on the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.
Iran Denies Negotiating with the US
Nevertheless, Iran firmly rejected Trump’s claims about the talks. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated that several friendly countries had recently sent messages to Iran indicating the US desire to initiate discussions to end the war. However, Iran has yet to respond.
Baghaei emphasised that Tehran’s position on the Strait of Hormuz and its conditions for ending the war remain unchanged.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also denied that his side was negotiating with the United States, calling the reports “fake news” intended to manipulate oil and financial markets.