Caution: Three Global Risks That Could Shake Indonesia's Economy
The head of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin), Anindya Novyan Bakrie, has said that the business world currently faces various increasingly complex global challenges, ranging from geopolitical conflicts to international economic pressures. This was conveyed during the second Regional Leadership Meeting (Rapimprov) of Kadin Jakarta.
According to Bakrie, the uncertain global situation, including conflicts in the Middle East, has the potential to inflict significant damage to the national economy.
“We see a world today full of challenges. Last year we discussed trade wars and tariffs with the United States, now we see physical war occurring in the Middle East. Of course the impact of this conflict is very significant for all of us,” Bakrie stated in a written statement in Jakarta on Monday (9 March 2026).
Bakrie highlighted three important aspects that Indonesia needs to watch: energy security, food security, and national stability. Regarding energy, Bakrie warned of the potential for rising world oil prices, which could strain the State Budget and Expenditure (APBN).
“If oil prices continue to rise and even breach 100 dollars per barrel, this would certainly be a major pressure on our APBN. Currently, our APBN is approximately 600 trillion rupiahs for the budgeted deficit. Of course this figure could rise by 40 to 50 per cent,” Bakrie said.
However, Bakrie stated that energy security conditions in Jakarta are relatively safe, particularly for gas supply and petroleum products, which are crucial for economic activity, including the fishing sector. Beyond energy, Bakrie also emphasised the importance of food security to maintain price stability, especially ahead of the Ramadan period.
“The Head of Kadin Jakarta, Diana Dewi, conveyed efforts to help through affordable markets to curb inflation. This is very important because we are starting to see inflation gradually rising, especially approaching the Ramadan period,” Bakrie continued.
The third aspect, Bakrie added, that was emphasised was national stability and Jakarta’s stability as the centre of Indonesia’s economic activity. Bakrie stated that Kadin Jakarta serves as the engine of the economy and guardian of national stability.
Bakrie further noted that Jakarta’s role in the national economy is very significant, with its contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reaching 16.8 per cent of national GDP and economic growth of 5.21 per cent, which is above the national average.
“Regardless of the fact that Jakarta is no longer the capital city, it actually appears its transformation into a good industrial service centre,” Bakrie remarked.
Bakrie also appreciated the measures taken by Kadin Jakarta in advancing the development of small and medium industries (SMIs) and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), particularly through certification and vocational training programmes to improve productivity and innovation.
“Well, in any case, to boost the economy, one of the ways is to increase productivity. Increased productivity and innovation are certainly closely related to such training programmes,” Bakrie stated.
Bakrie also proposed four strategic pillars that could serve as the focus for strengthening Jakarta’s economy.
“First, how Kadin Jakarta continues to be self-sufficient, and hopefully can help other provinces. Second, economic growth; third, continuing to be an inclusive province; and finally, sustainable,” Bakrie said.