Can Yudhoyono use his big win to change Indonesia?
Karim Raslan The Straits Times Asia News Network Singapore
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has won a staggering personal mandate. The 55-year-old former general from the small town of Pacitan in East Java has undergone an extraordinarily grueling political baptism -- almost unprecedented within Asia -- to emerge as Indonesia's sixth president.
This robust democratic process and Susilo's successful handling of its various (and often messy) challenges will enhance his reputation globally. Moreover, his achievement as the incoming leader of the world's largest Muslim nation will underline the fact that Islam and democracy are not mutually exclusive ideas.
Susilo had to face countless high-profile and feisty live TV debates and tough newspaper interviews with Indonesia's increasingly independent media. After eight months of intensive national campaigning and three grueling electoral contests, his legitimacy is therefore hard-earned and rock-solid.
At the same time, his popularity is genuine and nation-wide -- notwithstanding attempts to blacken his reputation as a racist Islamicist on the one hand and a pro-American toady on the other.
Similarly, objections to his military background have also been overcome through a combination of his quintessentially Javanese and understated personal style and his willingness to subject himself to public scrutiny. However, anti-military feelings run deep and many observers will be watching the President-elect's ties with the military very closely.
Still, the surprising margin of victory -- he led the incumbent Megawati Soekarnoputri by well over 20 percent of the popular vote -- means he will now be in the position to redraw Indonesia's political landscape.
Certainly, Susilo will want to win over the legislature, given that his own Democrat Party holds no more than 7 percent of the seats. In this respect, the newly-introduced direct presidential polls have undermined the power of traditional political elites (exemplified by the morally compromised Akbar Tanjung, leader of the Golkar party) with their culture of backroom deal-making.
Both Susilo and his deputy Jusuf Kalla will seek to co-opt allies from, and build bridges with, the two largest parties, Golkar party and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). Together, the two parties control 307 of the 550 seats in the legislature.
The incoming President will also enjoy a remarkable degree of flexibility as he selects his Cabinet. As a former security minister in Megawati's administration, he understands the need to set out a clear direction, both in terms of policy and ethical behavior.
Moreover, Susilo's breadth of experience and his attention to detail will mean he will want to involve himself with policy- making and implementation in a manner quite unlike any other Indonesian president. This could cause a logjam if Susilo proves unable to delegate effectively.
Susilo will focus his attention on the economy, drumming up foreign direct investment, tackling law and order, addressing the strife in Aceh, improving Indonesia's competitiveness, reforming the country's fiendishly expensive kerosene subsidies and focusing the security apparatus on the terrorist threat.
His offensive against extremist networks will cause concern amongst the country's many human rights activists, but their criticisms will be drowned out by the approval he receives from a population weary of terrorist attacks on Indonesian soil.
There is no doubt he will want to include a number of independent professional figures in his Cabinet -- people with real credibility and integrity. In so doing, he will be able to signal the seriousness of his administration to both domestic and international audiences.
Ideally, these figures should be non-partisan and respected by the business community. This means that Megawati's economic czar, Boediono, may well be retained. However, it is possible that economists such as the International Monetary Fund's Southeast Asia executive director Sri Mulyani Indrawati and think-tanker Mari Pangestu may end up playing important roles, as could lawyer Todung Mulya Lubis.
Other names being bandied around are the human rights' activist Marsillam Simanjuntak and educationist Azyurmadi Azra.
The campaigning has also showed incoming Vice-President Jusuf Kalla's limitations. His straight-dealing manner and pro-pribumi rhetoric caused a minor crisis within Susilo's team just before the final run-off as prominent ethnic Chinese figures moved away from the former general. Susilo will now seek to limit Jusuf's role and assert his authority in economic matters once again.
The professionals will be matched by Susilo's inner circle of advisers -- people such as Rachmat Witoelar, an experienced political hand (he was a former secretary-general of Golkar), and economist Joyo Winoto. They will be used to balance the prominent role played by former military officers in Susilo's team.
At the same time, Susilo will have to accommodate some of the political parties that supported his candidacy. In this, he will want to be circumspect, since much of this political support emanates from the more conservative Islamic parties, such as Crescent Star Party (PBB) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).
Finally, Indonesia's gains in terms of civil liberties must now be matched by socio-economic "deliverables". If Southeast Asia wants to see a real boost in the region's performance, Susilo will need to deliver on his promises of good governance.
The writer is a Kuala Lumpur-based lawyer and columnist.