Can the IHSG and Rupiah Maintain Their Rally After Trump's Speech?

Indonesia’s financial markets are expected to continue their positive trend on Thursday, February 26, 2026. More details about today’s market projections can be found on page 3 of this article.

The IHSG index rose by 0.50% yesterday, Wednesday, increasing by 41.39 points to 8,322.23. Throughout the session, the IHSG moved in a range of 8,259.75 - 8,373.48, opening at 8,318.15.

A total of 336 shares increased, 335 decreased, and 146 remained stable. The transaction value reached IDR 29.88 trillion, involving 52.29 billion shares in 2.84 million transactions. Market capitalization also increased to IDR 14,940 trillion.

From the issuer’s side, the strengthening of the IHSG was largely supported by banking shares. PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) contributed the most to the increase, with a contribution of 15.72 index points, followed by PT Bank Central Asia (BBCA) with a contribution of 9.47 index points. In addition, PT Indah Kiat Pulp and Paper (INKP) contributed 8.47 index points.

However, the strengthening of the IHSG was hampered by pressure on several large-capitalization shares. PT Barito Renewables Energy (BREN) was the largest drag, contributing 6.48 index points.

Followed by PT Bank Mandiri (BMRI), which slowed the pace with a contribution of 5.82 index points, and PT Chandra Asri Pacific (TPIA) with a contribution of 5.70 index points.

Turning to the currency market, the Rupiah exchange rate strengthened against the US dollar at the close of trading yesterday, Wednesday. Throughout the trading session, the Rupiah moved volatilely in the range of IDR 16,845-16,780/US$. The Rupiah’s strengthening yesterday was in line with the weakening of the US dollar in the global market. The dollar corrected after US President Donald Trump did not signal a change in tariff policy in his State of the Union address. At the same time, the US began implementing a temporary global tariff of 10% on Tuesday, and the market believes there is still room for an increase to 15% following a US Supreme Court ruling that overturned Trump’s previous reciprocal tariffs. From the monetary policy side, market participants are also monitoring comments from several US central bank officials who believe that interest rates are still worth maintaining amid an improving labor market but inflation risks have not completely subsided. However, the market still projects the possibility of a rate cut by the Fed this year, so the pressure on the dollar has not completely disappeared. This correction in the dollar ultimately opened up room for strengthening for emerging market currencies, including the Rupiah, which managed to close in the green on yesterday’s trading. Turning to the bond market, the SBN with a 10-year tenor recorded a decrease of 0.43% to 6.410%. From the US stock market, Wall Street rose on Wednesday or early Thursday in Indonesian time. The increase was supported by the strengthening of Nvidia and Oracle, as the market continued its gains from the previous trading session. The S&P 500 index rose 0.81% and closed at 6,946.13, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.26% to 23,152.08. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 307.65 points or 0.63% and ended at 49,482.15. Nvidia shares rose 1.4% ahead of its earnings report, which is scheduled to be released after the market closes, along with reports from software giants Salesforce and Snowflake. Nvidia’s report comes amid a situation where investors are starting to readjust the high valuations of technology stocks and are increasingly skeptical of the large capital expenditure (capex) in AI by hyperscaler companies. “Whether this market confidence can last for the next few days will depend in part on Nvidia’s earnings,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, Chief Investment Officer for the Americas and Global Head of Equities at UBS, in a note to CNBC International. “With hyperscalers announcing increased capex in recent weeks, the market expects the chipmaker to project revenue above consensus estimates with strong sales growth.” She added. Michael Rosen, Chief Investment Officer at Angeles Investment Advisors, warned investors not to bet against CEO Jensen Huang, saying that he “is playing his cards very well.” Shares of another AI company, Oracle, jumped 1%, leading the continued rebound in software stocks, after the stock was upgraded by Oppenheimer, which said its risk-reward profile was attractive after the recent correction. The software sector extended its gains from the previous session, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) rising nearly 2%. The ETF jumped 3% on Wednesday, with stocks such as Palantir Technologies and Microsoft also rising. Rosen believes that investor concerns about the software and AI sectors are “somewhat exaggerated.” “The market, in my opinion, is moving from an approach of ‘put everything in one category and push it up’ to being more selective about which companies may be in a better position than others,” he said. Rosen also said that the market, which previously operated on a ‘buy first, ask later’ basis, is now entering a phase of ‘ask later,’ where things may no longer seem so scary. Entering Thursday’s trading, Indonesia’s financial markets have the potential to move more sensitively because they are overshadowed by a series of sentiments, especially from the United States. Market participants are not only digesting the direction of economic policy that was reaffirmed by US President Donald Trump in his State of the Union address, but also monitoring the increasing geopolitical tensions after Trump hinted at possible action against Iran, as well as the uncertainty surrounding new trade tariff policies. Here are some of the sentiments that are expected to trigger market movements in today’s trading. Key Points from Trump’s State of the Union Address US President Donald Trump delivered his 2026 State of the Union address before