Can Oil Price Really Reach 200 US Dollars per Barrel as Iran Claims?

Conflict involving Iran with the United States and Israel has triggered fresh concerns in the global energy market. A number of analysts believe global oil prices could surge sharply if supply disruptions in the Middle East region expand further.

The statement emerged after Iranian military officials warned that oil prices could spike to 200 US dollars per barrel should the conflict continue.

The threat was conveyed by Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaqari, who stated that energy price stability is heavily dependent on Middle East regional security.

“Prepare for oil prices to reach 200 dollars per barrel, because oil prices depend on the security of the region which you have destabilised,” Zolfaqari told Iranian state media.

Geopolitical tensions escalated following military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran on 28 February 2026, which triggered broader conflict in the region.

The Strait of Hormuz is Key

According to Euronews reporting on Friday, 13 March 2026, energy analysts assessed that Iran’s threat focuses on the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically crucial shipping lane through which approximately 20 per cent of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies transit.

Given its strategic geographical position, Iran is assessed to have the capability to disrupt global energy traffic if the conflict intensifies further.

Several reports also indicate that vessels from neutral countries, including those flagged to Japan, Thailand, and the Marshall Islands, have become targets of interference in recent times.

This action is assessed as Iran’s strategy to increase global economic pressure, thereby compelling Western nations to cease military operations against Iran.