Cabinet reshuffle caps year of silent rivalry

Cabinet reshuffle caps year of silent rivalry

Dwi Atmanta, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's face stiffened prior to
announcing the first Cabinet reshuffle that night of Dec. 5.

He spent most of his introductory speech denying media reports
regarding an alleged tug-of-war that preceded the changes to his
Cabinet team, which he said were speculative and baseless.

Why did he bother responding to such unsubstantiated news in
that case?

Critics were quick to criticize Susilo for lacking the
composure a statesman needs to respond to the problems he is
facing. Former president Megawati Soekarnoputri joined the
chorus, saying her successor did not have a sense of humor.

What was behind the President's ire was his attempt to prove
his critics, who branded him an indecisive leader, wrong.

"I have never hesitated (to replace ministers). I have a
definite concept in running the government," Susilo said in a
televised speech.

He also dismissed speculation that he had come under pressure
from certain political parties or individuals in determining who
gets what in the minor reshuffle.

Whatever the President maintained, many deem the reshuffle as
a win-win solution reached between him and Vice President Jusuf
Kalla, who leads the Golkar Party, the major bedrock of political
support for his one-year-old administration.

Demands had mounted previously for Susilo to replace Aburizal
Bakrie, who is a Golkar member, as the chief economics minister.

Susilo bowed to the pressure, but instead of kicking Aburizal
out of the Cabinet, he shifted him to the post of coordinating
minister for people's welfare. To further appease Golkar, Susilo
awarded the party the National Development Planning Board
chairmanship post. A Golkar executive said the party could have
secured one more post in Fadel Muhammad, but Susilo dropped him
at the last minute.

A source said Kalla was initially reluctant to travel to
Yogyakarta to accompany Susilo in announcing the Cabinet
reshuffle. The source said Kalla was unhappy with Aburizal losing
his strategic post to Susilo's handpicked candidate Boediono.
After three telephone conversations with Susilo, however, Kalla
departed.

Kalla flew back to Jakarta just an hour after the announcement
with a smile.

But it was Susilo who seemed to have had the last laugh.

Replacing Aburizal is indeed the boldest measure Susilo has
ever taken. Aburizal's entry into the Cabinet was recommended by
Kalla, who also focuses on economic affairs in line with the
division of labor agreed upon with Susilo.

When the discourse on the reshuffle began to roll, Kalla
insisted that there would be no changes in the economic team.

Then the President raised the issue of public officials who
also play a role as businessmen. Susilo call them dual-function
politicians, reminiscence of a New Order term for the socio-
political role played by the military.

It remains unclear who the President was referring to, because
in fact state officials are banned from running businesses. There
is no regulation prohibiting their families from seeking profit,
however.

There are several Cabinet members who used to be active in
business, including Kalla, Aburizal and Minister of Industry
Fahmi Idris.

As if to respond to Susilo's statement, Kalla said the
inclusion of businessmen in the Cabinet was unavoidable and would
benefit the government due to their managerial and negotiating
skills.

Susilo seized the momentum of the Cabinet reshuffle to
dissociate public officials from the private sector.

The President said he would issue a regulation that would
prohibit companies run by families or relatives of public
officials from bidding for projects funded by state or regional
budgets.

The reform movement in 1998 had led to a major crackdown on
corruption, collusion and nepotism involving state officials, but
only recently the demand began to materialize. Collusion and
nepotism, however, are still rampant and difficult to prove.

To further show who's the boss, Susilo announced a plan to
formalize his professional relationship with the Vice President
in a bid to avoid overlapping tasks that might confuse not only
the Cabinet members but the public at large.

The idea of issuing the unprecedented regulation followed
repeated contradictory statements made in public by the President
and the Vice President, notably the fuel price hike and the
Cabinet reshuffle.

A recent study conducted by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI)
revealed that most respondents perceived the Vice President
as playing an equal or more important role in running the
country.

The pollster said Kalla's increased performance rating
probably came from his prominent role in the peaceful settlement
of the Aceh conflict, perceptions of his proactive approach to
the country's economic policies, his support base in the House of
Representatives through the Golkar Party he heads and his
leadership style.

Kalla proved himself a skillful peace broker when he managed
to convince Free Aceh Movement (GAM) rebels to sit at the
negotiating table, and later on drop their long-held demand for
an independent state.

Most respondents of the LSI survey say that one year into his
term of office Kalla has played a bigger role in the government
than his boss Susilo. Therefore in its recommendation, LSI
suggested that Susilo take more initiatives while Kalla stay in
the background.

Susilo might have had to allow for compromises in order to
consolidate political support in the difficult first year of
tenure, which might explain why he appeared to not be in full
command.

Now that the Cabinet reshuffle has brought together all major
parties except the self-styled opposition camp, the Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle on his side, Susilo could emerge as
a powerful president as LSI put it in the second year.

"The President should never hesitate to exercise the powers
the Constitution grants him in line with the presidential system
of government," LSI said in its recommendations.

Nobody knows what Susilo has in mind to strengthen his
political clout, but LSI suggested that he build a political
machine that will provide him with second opinions that go in
line with his platform, keep him in touch with trends in the
society and help him maintain his political capital.

His popularity, still high despite the tough year, is his most
valuable asset, which none of his contenders can afford to
ignore.

Kalla must realize that. A Golkar figure said the Vice
President told party executives it would be impossible for him to
challenge Susilo in the 2009 election.

"It is possible that Kalla will again contest the election as
Susilo's running mate, and emerge as a more powerful vice
president," he said.

Kalla himself has dismissed speculation that he might
challenge Susilo for the top post, like he did in 2004 when they
challenged their former boss Megawati.

With politics being the game of the possible, no one can
guarantee that an energetic, hardworking Kalla will keep a low
profile.

Everything is now dependent on whether Susilo can gain the
momentum of the Cabinet reshuffle to make use of the chemistry he
and Kalla have formed. One year of confusion is more than enough.