Brisk world economic growth forecast for '95

Brisk world economic growth forecast for '95

MANILA (AFP): The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and two other multilateral agencies forecast brisk world economic growth this year and next, with Asia leading the pack as industrialized countries pull out of recession.

IMF officials told an international conference here the world's real gross domestic product (GDP) output would hit 3.1 percent in 1994 and 3.6 percent in 1995 compared with 1.7 percent in 1992 and 2.3 percent in 1993.

Industrialized countries would post 2.7 percent growth in 1994 and 1995, with the United States forecast to register 3.7 percent this year and 2.5 percent next year, while Japan would recover with 0.9 percent growth this year and 2.5 percent in 1995.

The IMF said developing countries would also enjoy 5.6 percent growth this year and next, although this would be lower than the aggregate 6.1 percent growth in 1993.

East Asia would enjoy real GDP growth of eight percent this year, with China posting 11 percent from 13.4 percent last year, it added.

Africa however will enjoy 3.3 percent growth this year with the Middle East advancing by 1.4 percent and South America by 2.8 percent.

The World Bank said real GDP among high income countries would grow by 2.4 percent this year, 3.1 percent in 1995 and 3.4 percent in 1996.

The Group of Seven industrialized countries would grow by 2.5 percent this year, 2.8 percent in 1995 and 2.9 percent in 1996.

Asia

Asian economies would grow by 7.6 percent this year, 7.2 percent next year and 7.0 percent in 1996, with East Asia posting figures of 8.9 percent, 8.1 percent and 7.6 percent, respectively.

For South Asia the figures would be 4.6 percent, 5.2 percent and 5.4 percent, it added.

The World Bank said other regions would not enjoy such high growth, with Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union expected to contract by 10.4 percent this year and negative 0.7 percent in 1995 before achieving expansion at 2.5 percent in 1996.

The Middle East and Africa would grow by 2.8 percent this year, 4.2 percent next year and 4.3 percent in 1996, while Latin America and the Caribbean would grow by 2.7 percent this year, 2.3 percent in 1995 and 3.5 percent in 1996.

The Manila-based Asian Development Bank (ADB), which sponsored the conference, said real gross national product (GNP) growth for the world this year would be 2.1 percent and 3.1 percent in 1995.

The industrialized countries would grow by 2.7 percent for 1994 and 1995, Asia by 8.0 percent and 7.3 percent, Africa by 3.3 and 4.5 percent, and Latin America by 2.8 percent and 3.3 percent.

Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union would post negative 8.3 percent in 1994 and negative 1.0 percent in 1995.

The ADB also said it expected inflation to remain low, at 2.4 percent in 1994 and 2.6 percent in 1995 for the G-7.

For the developing countries, the figure would be 47.5 percent and 13.2 percent, respectively, it added.