Brisk world economic growth forecast for '95<\/p>\n
MANILA (AFP): The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and two
\nother multilateral agencies forecast brisk world economic growth
\nthis year and next, with Asia leading the pack as industrialized
\ncountries pull out of recession.<\/p>\n
IMF officials told an international conference here the
\nworld's real gross domestic product (GDP) output would hit 3.1
\npercent in 1994 and 3.6 percent in 1995 compared with 1.7 percent
\nin 1992 and 2.3 percent in 1993.<\/p>\n
Industrialized countries would post 2.7 percent growth in 1994
\nand 1995, with the United States forecast to register 3.7 percent
\nthis year and 2.5 percent next year, while Japan would recover
\nwith 0.9 percent growth this year and 2.5 percent in 1995.<\/p>\n
The IMF said developing countries would also enjoy 5.6 percent
\ngrowth this year and next, although this would be lower than the
\naggregate 6.1 percent growth in 1993.<\/p>\n
East Asia would enjoy real GDP growth of eight percent this
\nyear, with China posting 11 percent from 13.4 percent last year,
\nit added.<\/p>\n
Africa however will enjoy 3.3 percent growth this year with
\nthe Middle East advancing by 1.4 percent and South America by 2.8
\npercent.<\/p>\n
The World Bank said real GDP among high income countries would
\ngrow by 2.4 percent this year, 3.1 percent in 1995 and 3.4
\npercent in 1996.<\/p>\n
The Group of Seven industrialized countries would grow by 2.5
\npercent this year, 2.8 percent in 1995 and 2.9 percent in 1996.<\/p>\n
Asia<\/p>\n
Asian economies would grow by 7.6 percent this year, 7.2
\npercent next year and 7.0 percent in 1996, with East Asia posting
\nfigures of 8.9 percent, 8.1 percent and 7.6 percent,
\nrespectively.<\/p>\n
For South Asia the figures would be 4.6 percent, 5.2 percent
\nand 5.4 percent, it added.<\/p>\n
The World Bank said other regions would not enjoy such high
\ngrowth, with Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union expected
\nto contract by 10.4 percent this year and negative 0.7 percent in
\n1995 before achieving expansion at 2.5 percent in 1996.<\/p>\n
The Middle East and Africa would grow by 2.8 percent this
\nyear, 4.2 percent next year and 4.3 percent in 1996, while Latin
\nAmerica and the Caribbean would grow by 2.7 percent this year,
\n2.3 percent in 1995 and 3.5 percent in 1996.<\/p>\n
The Manila-based Asian Development Bank (ADB), which sponsored
\nthe conference, said real gross national product (GNP) growth for
\nthe world this year would be 2.1 percent and 3.1 percent in 1995.<\/p>\n
The industrialized countries would grow by 2.7 percent for
\n1994 and 1995, Asia by 8.0 percent and 7.3 percent, Africa by 3.3
\nand 4.5 percent, and Latin America by 2.8 percent and 3.3
\npercent.<\/p>\n
Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union would post negative
\n8.3 percent in 1994 and negative 1.0 percent in 1995.<\/p>\n
The ADB also said it expected inflation to remain low, at 2.4
\npercent in 1994 and 2.6 percent in 1995 for the G-7.<\/p>\n
For the developing countries, the figure would be 47.5 percent
\nand 13.2 percent, respectively, it added.<\/p>",
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