Brent oil price climbs to US$84, highest since the start of the year

Escalation of the war in the Middle East pushed global oil prices to their highest level since the start of the year on Tuesday, 3 March 2026. Oil prices remained above US$80 per barrel until market open on Wednesday, 4 March 2026. Quoted by Trading Economics, Brent crude futures on 3 March 2026 reached US$84 per barrel, the highest since January. At opening on 4 March 2026, prices opened at US$82 per barrel, while WTI rose to around US$75 per barrel. Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia stated that the escalation of the United States and Israel vs Iran conflict again put the global energy market on alert. “The threat to the Hormuz Strait, a route through which around 20 percent of world oil trades, directly triggers a spike in oil prices and raises the risk of global energy inflation,” according to Kiwoom Sekuritas’ written analysis, Wednesday, 4 March 2026. Kiwoom Sekuritas analysts said the psychological level for world oil is US$80, US$90, and US$100 per barrel. As it approaches US$100, it usually begins to have a real impact on global energy inflation and the fiscal pressure on import-reliant countries. For Indonesia, the US$90 level will begin increasing pressure on energy inflation and import costs. Meanwhile, if it touches US$100, it will become a major risk for importing countries, not least because Indonesia is a net oil importer. “Pressure on the state budget and the rupiah usually increases.” For every US$1 rise in oil price per barrel, the burden on the state budget (APBN) is estimated to rise by around Rp 10.3 trillion, while additional revenue is only around Rp 3.6 trillion. As long as oil prices remain below US$90 per barrel, the market impact is typically volatility in sentiment. However, if Brent breaches US$100 accompanied by physical distribution disruptions, the risk could become an energy shock that could press inflation, the rupiah, and IHSG more broadly. Editor’s pick: Minister Bahlil ensures subsidised fuel prices do not rise.