Breaking! Rupiah Strengthens This Morning, US Dollar Falls to Rp16,985
The rupiah exchange rate started trading this morning in strengthening territory against the US dollar, buoyed by optimism regarding the end of the war in the Middle East.
According to Refinitiv data, the rupiah rate at the market open today, Wednesday (1 April 2026), was in the green with a slight strengthening of 0.03% at the level of Rp16,985/US.ThiscameaftertheprevioustradingcloseonTuesday(31March2026), whentherupiahweakenedby0.03.
Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) at 09:00 WIB was experiencing a correction, falling to 99.850, or weakening by 0.11%.
Today’s rupiah movement received positive impetus from external sentiment. The US dollar tended to weaken after US President Donald Trump stated that the war with Iran could end in two to three weeks.
That statement has led to a easing of demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, although the market remains cautious because the direction of the conflict is not yet fully certain.
Throughout the conflict that erupted at the end of February, the US dollar has indeed benefited from inflows into safe-haven assets.
In addition, the United States’ position as a clean energy exporter has also made the dollar relatively more resilient compared to other currencies when the market is overshadowed by oil supply disruptions. However, when signals emerge that the war may ease, the pressure on the dollar also diminishes.
Nevertheless, market sentiment has not fully recovered. Trump is scheduled to provide an important update on Iran, while US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also mentioned that the coming days will be a determining phase in the conflict.
This means that the direction of market movements, including the rupiah, is still very much influenced by the latest geopolitical developments.
On the domestic side, market players today are also awaiting the release of March 2026 inflation data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS).
Based on market consensus gathered by CNBC Indonesia from 12 institutions, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March is estimated to experience inflation of 0.60% on a monthly basis (month-to-month/mtm) and 3.68% on an annual basis (year-on-year/yoy).
Meanwhile, core inflation for March 2026 is estimated to be at 2.65% yoy. For reference, in February 2026, Indonesia recorded inflation of 0.68% mtm, while annual inflation was at 4.76% yoy and core inflation at 2.63% yoy.