Breaking: IDX Composite Suddenly Falls More Than 1%

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Indonesia Stock Exchange Composite Index (IDX Composite) weakened again in the first trading session this morning. At 09:58 WIB, it stood at 5,368.64, down 70.62 points, or 1.30%.

The index had opened at 5,442.30, up 3.04 points, or around 0.06%, from the previous close of 5,439.26.

It touched an intraday low of 5,349.75. Trading volume stood at 126.06 million lots, with transactions worth Rp4.82 trillion.

Global and Indonesian financial markets face a busy week. Developments in the war remain the main market driver, while a series of key events—including central-bank decisions—will affect shares, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities.

Seven central banks are scheduled to announce monetary policy decisions this week: the State Bank of Pakistan on 26 October; the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Bank of Thailand on 28 October; the European Central Bank (ECB) on 29 October; and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on 30 October.

Investors will also monitor US and eurozone economic growth figures, as well as US PCE inflation, one of the Fed’s main indicators for setting monetary policy.

Here are the key economic events for markets to watch this week.

1. Chinese Communist Party plenary session

The Communist Party’s Fifth Plenum, a meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, is an important gathering to discuss China’s political direction and strategic policies.

The party will consider the direction of economic, industrial and technology policy, as well as national development over the coming years.

Scheduled for 26–29 October 2026, the meeting is in focus because it could signal the consolidation of President Xi Jinping’s power, a stronger anti-corruption drive and the government’s priorities ahead of 2027.

For global investors, its outcomes matter for assessing policy certainty, the business climate and China’s economic prospects, which affect share markets, the yuan, commodity prices and trading partners such as Indonesia.

2. China’s industrial profits in September 2026

China will release industrial profit data for January to September on Tuesday (27 October) at 08:30 WIB. For comparison, industrial profits grew by 15.7% year on year in January–August, slowing from 17.6% in January–July. A further slowdown could weigh on the outlook for commodity demand, while stronger profits could signal a recovery in Chinese industrial activity and investment.

3. The Fed’s October 2026 interest-rate decision

The Fed is scheduled to announce its rate decision on Wednesday US time, or Thursday (29 October) at 01:00 WIB, followed by a press conference at 01:30 WIB.

The market consensus is that the US central bank will hold rates at 3.75%–4.00%, after raising them by 25 basis points in September.

Although rates are expected to remain unchanged, investors will focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks on the inflation outlook, labour-market conditions and the possibility of further tightening.

A more hawkish stance could strengthen the US dollar and weigh on risk assets, including shares in emerging markets. Conversely, a signal that inflationary pressures are easing could prompt markets to reassess the outlook for US monetary policy.

For Indonesia, the Fed’s policy direction is an important factor affecting the rupiah, foreign capital flows and the appeal of government bonds (SBN).

4. US third-quarter 2026 economic growth

The advance estimate of US third-quarter GDP will be released on Thursday (29 October) at 19:30 WIB.

The US economy is expected to grow by 3.2% quarter on quarter at an annualised rate, up from 2.2% in the previous quarter. Stronger growth could underline the resilience of the US economy, but if accompanied by high inflation it could strengthen expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer.

5. US PCE inflation

The US will also release September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data on Thursday (29 October) at 19:30 WIB.

In August 2026, PCE inflation was 3.4% year on year, while core inflation stood at 3.0%.

Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise by 0.3% month on month in September 2026, from 0.2% in August. The annual rate is forecast to increase to 3.1%, from 3.0%.

The data are important because PCE is one of the main inflation indicators the Fed uses to set monetary policy.

If inflation exceeds expectations, concerns that price pressures remain difficult to control could grow, potentially reinforcing expectations that interest rates will stay high for longer.

Conversely, lower inflation could ease pressure on markets, although a sustained decline would be needed before the monetary policy outlook changed significantly.

6. ECB’s October 2026 interest-rate decision

The ECB is scheduled to announce its rate decision on Thursday (29 October) at 20:15 WIB, with a press conference at 20:45 WIB.

The consensus forecast is for the main refinancing rate to remain at 2.65%, while the deposit facility rate stays at 2.50%.

Investors will watch how the ECB balances inflation risks against slowing economic growth in Europe. Energy-price pressures and uncertainty over growth are key factors in determining the next policy steps.

7. BOJ’s October 2026 interest-rate decision

The BOJ is scheduled to announce its rate decision on Friday (30 October), although the release time may change in line with the central bank’s official schedule.

The consensus forecast is for the BOJ to hold rates at 1.25%, following an increase from 1.00% in September.

In addition to the rate decision, markets will monitor the economic and price outlook report, including any changes to growth and inflation forecasts and the bank’s assessment of wage and consumption trends.

8. Eurozone third-quarter 2026 economic growth

The eurozone’s advance GDP estimate will be released on Friday (30 October) at 17:00 WIB.

The economy is expected to grow by 0.2% quarter on quarter, slowing from 0.6% in the previous quarter.

Annual growth is forecast to reach 1.1%, down from 1.2%. A sharper slowdown could increase concerns about the region’s economy and become an important consideration for the ECB’s policy direction.