Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia \u2013 The Indonesia Stock Exchange Composite\nIndex (IDX Composite) weakened again in the first trading session this\nmorning. At 09:58 WIB, it stood at 5,368.64, down 70.62 points, or\n1.30%.<\/p>\n
The index had opened at 5,442.30, up 3.04 points, or around 0.06%,\nfrom the previous close of 5,439.26.<\/p>\n
It touched an intraday low of 5,349.75. Trading volume stood at\n126.06 million lots, with transactions worth Rp4.82 trillion.<\/p>\n
Global and Indonesian financial markets face a busy week.\nDevelopments in the war remain the main market driver, while a series of\nkey events\u2014including central-bank decisions\u2014will affect shares, bonds,\nforeign exchange and commodities.<\/p>\n
Seven central banks are scheduled to announce monetary policy\ndecisions this week: the State Bank of Pakistan on 26 October; the US\nFederal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Bank of\nThailand on 28 October; the European Central Bank (ECB) on 29 October;\nand the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on 30 October.<\/p>\n
Investors will also monitor US and eurozone economic growth figures,\nas well as US PCE inflation, one of the Fed\u2019s main indicators for\nsetting monetary policy.<\/p>\n
Here are the key economic events for markets to watch this week.<\/p>\n
1. Chinese Communist Party plenary session<\/strong><\/p>\n The Communist Party\u2019s Fifth Plenum, a meeting of the Central\nCommittee of the Communist Party of China, is an important gathering to\ndiscuss China\u2019s political direction and strategic policies.<\/p>\n The party will consider the direction of economic, industrial and\ntechnology policy, as well as national development over the coming\nyears.<\/p>\n Scheduled for 26\u201329 October 2026, the meeting is in focus because it\ncould signal the consolidation of President Xi Jinping\u2019s power, a\nstronger anti-corruption drive and the government\u2019s priorities ahead of\n2027.<\/p>\n For global investors, its outcomes matter for assessing policy\ncertainty, the business climate and China\u2019s economic prospects, which\naffect share markets, the yuan, commodity prices and trading partners\nsuch as Indonesia.<\/p>\n 2. China\u2019s industrial profits in September 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n China will release industrial profit data for January to September on\nTuesday (27 October) at 08:30 WIB. For comparison, industrial profits\ngrew by 15.7% year on year in January\u2013August, slowing from 17.6% in\nJanuary\u2013July. A further slowdown could weigh on the outlook for\ncommodity demand, while stronger profits could signal a recovery in\nChinese industrial activity and investment.<\/p>\n 3. The Fed\u2019s October 2026 interest-rate decision<\/strong><\/p>\n The Fed is scheduled to announce its rate decision on Wednesday US\ntime, or Thursday (29 October) at 01:00 WIB, followed by a press\nconference at 01:30 WIB.<\/p>\n The market consensus is that the US central bank will hold rates at\n3.75%\u20134.00%, after raising them by 25 basis points in September.<\/p>\n Although rates are expected to remain unchanged, investors will focus\non Fed Chair Kevin Warsh\u2019s remarks on the inflation outlook,\nlabour-market conditions and the possibility of further tightening.<\/p>\n A more hawkish stance could strengthen the US dollar and weigh on\nrisk assets, including shares in emerging markets. Conversely, a signal\nthat inflationary pressures are easing could prompt markets to reassess\nthe outlook for US monetary policy.<\/p>\n For Indonesia, the Fed\u2019s policy direction is an important factor\naffecting the rupiah, foreign capital flows and the appeal of government\nbonds (SBN).<\/p>\n 4. US third-quarter 2026 economic growth<\/strong><\/p>\n The advance estimate of US third-quarter GDP will be released on\nThursday (29 October) at 19:30 WIB.<\/p>\n The US economy is expected to grow by 3.2% quarter on quarter at an\nannualised rate, up from 2.2% in the previous quarter. Stronger growth\ncould underline the resilience of the US economy, but if accompanied by\nhigh inflation it could strengthen expectations that interest rates will\nremain elevated for longer.<\/p>\n 5. US PCE inflation<\/strong><\/p>\n The US will also release September Personal Consumption Expenditures\n(PCE) inflation data on Thursday (29 October) at 19:30 WIB.<\/p>\n In August 2026, PCE inflation was 3.4% year on year, while core\ninflation stood at 3.0%.<\/p>\n Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, is expected to\nrise by 0.3% month on month in September 2026, from 0.2% in August. The\nannual rate is forecast to increase to 3.1%, from 3.0%.<\/p>\n The data are important because PCE is one of the main inflation\nindicators the Fed uses to set monetary policy.<\/p>\n If inflation exceeds expectations, concerns that price pressures\nremain difficult to control could grow, potentially reinforcing\nexpectations that interest rates will stay high for longer.<\/p>\n Conversely, lower inflation could ease pressure on markets, although\na sustained decline would be needed before the monetary policy outlook\nchanged significantly.<\/p>\n 6. ECB\u2019s October 2026 interest-rate decision<\/strong><\/p>\n The ECB is scheduled to announce its rate decision on Thursday (29\nOctober) at 20:15 WIB, with a press conference at 20:45 WIB.<\/p>\n The consensus forecast is for the main refinancing rate to remain at\n2.65%, while the deposit facility rate stays at 2.50%.<\/p>\n Investors will watch how the ECB balances inflation risks against\nslowing economic growth in Europe. Energy-price pressures and\nuncertainty over growth are key factors in determining the next policy\nsteps.<\/p>\n 7. BOJ\u2019s October 2026 interest-rate decision<\/strong><\/p>\n The BOJ is scheduled to announce its rate decision on Friday (30\nOctober), although the release time may change in line with the central\nbank\u2019s official schedule.<\/p>\n The consensus forecast is for the BOJ to hold rates at 1.25%,\nfollowing an increase from 1.00% in September.<\/p>\n In addition to the rate decision, markets will monitor the economic\nand price outlook report, including any changes to growth and inflation\nforecasts and the bank\u2019s assessment of wage and consumption trends.<\/p>\n 8. Eurozone third-quarter 2026 economic growth<\/strong><\/p>\n The eurozone\u2019s advance GDP estimate will be released on Friday (30\nOctober) at 17:00 WIB.<\/p>\n The economy is expected to grow by 0.2% quarter on quarter, slowing\nfrom 0.6% in the previous quarter.<\/p>\n Annual growth is forecast to reach 1.1%, down from 1.2%. A sharper\nslowdown could increase concerns about the region\u2019s economy and become\nan important consideration for the ECB\u2019s policy direction.<\/p>",
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