Brace Yourselves for an Important Announcement Tomorrow, It Seems Likely to Be Disappointing

Indonesia’s inflation is expected to rise monthly in April 2026, one of the factors being a surge in non-subsidised fuel prices. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) is scheduled to announce April 2026 inflation data tomorrow, Monday (4/5/2026). A market consensus gathered by CNBC Indonesia from 13 institutions forecasts the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2026 to experience 0.43% inflation monthly (month-to-month/mtm), with a median annual inflation of 2.72% (year-on-year/yoy). Meanwhile, core inflation for April 2026 is expected to be at 2.40% yoy. For reference, in March 2026, Indonesia experienced 0.41% inflation (mtm), while annually it was recorded at 3.48% (yoy) and core inflation reached 2.63% (yoy). The Head of Economics at Bank Maybank Indonesia, Juniman, explained that the monthly inflation rise is contributed by rice, sugar, cooking oil, beef, chicken, wheat, soybeans, and red chillies. The price increase of non-subsidised fuels (Pertamax Turbo, Pertamina Dex, and Dexlite) has also risen. “The weakening rupiah is also driving imported inflation. Meanwhile, along with the decline in global gold prices, gold and jewellery prices fell in March,” said Juniman to CNBC Indonesia. As a note, the government raised several non-subsidised fuel prices effective 18 April 2026. The price of Pertamax Turbo jumped 48.1% from Rp13,100 per litre to Rp19,400 per litre. Not only that, Dexlite also rose 66.2% from Rp14,200 per litre to Rp23,600 per litre. Meanwhile, Pertamina Dex increased 64.8% from Rp14,500 per litre to Rp23,900 per litre. The Head of Economics at Bank Mandiri, Andry Asmoro, explained that the adjustment of non-subsidised fuel and energy prices is expected to contribute around 0.04 percentage points to monthly inflation. Andry added that the fall in prices of bird’s eye chillies, red chillies, chicken, and eggs has slightly restrained inflation. Data from the National Strategic Food Price Information Centre (PIHPSN) shows that several food items have seen significant price increases. The average price of rice jumped 0.57% in April to Rp15,929/kg and the price of cooking oil surged 2.07% to Rp22,229 per kg. Meanwhile, the average price of chicken fell 4% to Rp40,511 per kg, the price of red bird’s eye chillies eased 2.5% to Rp32,365 per kg, and the price of red chillies dropped 13.4% to Rp74,218 per kg. The surge in aviation fuel prices is also burdening inflation. Air ticket prices rose 3.13% mtm (compared to 5.24% in March), contrary to the usual post-Eid deflation pattern, due to the increase in avtur prices. Economist at Bank Danamon, Hosianna Situmorang, explained that annually, inflation will ease because the base effect from last year’s electricity discounts has ended.