BPS to Announce Today: Indonesia's Economic Growth Projected at 5.5 Percent

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) will announce Indonesia’s economic growth figures for the first quarter of 2026 today, Tuesday (5/5/2026).

Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto projects that Indonesia’s economic growth could reach 5.5 percent.

This target is higher than the annual target estimate presented in the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN), which stands at 5.4 percent.

The first-quarter 2026 economic growth figure is important as it will determine the direction of Indonesia’s economic resilience amid ongoing global uncertainties, ranging from commodity price volatility to geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East.

Research from BRI Danareksa Sekuritas projects Indonesia’s economic growth to reach 5.36 percent on an annual basis (year-on-year/yoy) in the first quarter of 2026.

“We note that a strong potential GDP figure could provide some relief. We estimate Indonesia’s GDP growth at around 5.36 percent annually in the first quarter of 2026,” the research states.

Stable retail activity and persistently positive consumer sentiment indicate that public purchasing power has not weakened.

“Particularly up to February, as reflected in stable retail activity and healthy consumer sentiment. This shows that purchasing power continues to support overall economic activity,” the research adds.

In addition to consumption, investments are also beginning to show improvement.

Government spending at the start of the year has also provided additional impetus.

A more even spending pattern is seen as helping to avoid budget accumulation at year-end while strengthening growth from the outset.

Meanwhile, Economist at Kisi Asset Management Arfian Prasetya Aji explains that the likelihood of Indonesia’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 will be slightly higher than the historical average, in the range of 5.2 to 5.3 percent.