BPS increases its rice forecast

JAKARTA (JP): The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) has increased its unhusked rice production forecast for this planting year to 46.44 million metric tons from an initial estimate of 46.29 million tons.

Minister of Agriculture Soleh Solahuddin said on Thursday the upward revision was made due to a better-than-expected rice harvest in August and September.

But he said this year's rice production would still be lower than the 49.38 million tons recorded in 1997.

"BPS revised the forecast after considering the good August- September harvest, which was better than we previously expected," Soleh said at a workshop on agricultural statistics, which was also attended by BPS director Sugito Suwito.

The government earlier estimated the country's rice production this planting year to drop 6.25 percent from last year's yield due to a delay in the planting season.

Soleh said the previous estimate, issued in the middle of June, was given after poor harvests were recorded from February to April this year.

The country's rice planting year consists of three harvest seasons: February, August and January.

Soleh, however, said he still believed that Indonesia's unhusked rice production this planting year would total 48.35 million tons, 4.5 percent higher than the government's initial target.

He based his estimate on the government's efforts to increase the amount of land under cultivation and to help farmers boost productivity.

"We have subsidized fertilizers to help farmers produce more rice this planting season. So I guarantee that we will have a good harvest in February. After that, we can flood the market with our rice," Soleh said.

Should 48.35 million tons of unhusked rice be harvested, it could be processed into 29 million tons of milled rice. The country's rice consumption is expected to total 31 million tons this year.

To make up for the shortage, the government plans to import as much as 4.1 million tons of rice this fiscal year.

Other crops

Sugito said the bureau had also revised its production forecast for several other crops. BPS expects corn production to reach 9.79 million tons, up 11.66 percent from 8.77 million tons last year.

In June, the bureau predicted the country's corn production would total 9.17 million tons.

Soybean production is forecasted to drop 3.22 percent to 1.31 million tons this year from 1.36 million tons in 1997, while green bean production is predicted to jump 16 percent to 303,181 tons compared to 260,000 tons last year.

The bureau had previously predicted a 1.39 million ton soybean harvest and a 290,000 ton green bean harvest for the year.

Cassava yields are estimated to total 14.88 million tons this year, a 1.62 percent drop from 15.13 million tons in 1997.

The bureau had earlier predicted it could be as high as 16.05 million tons.

The country's peanut production is expected to decline 0.24 percent to 683,280 tons this year from 690,000 tons in 1997, while sweet potato production is forecasted to reach 1.9 million tons, up 3.1 percent from 1.85 million tons last year.

BPS previously predicted peanut and sweet potato harvests at 670,000 tons and 1.8 million tons respectively. (gis)