BMRI Buyback Plan: Retail Investors Should Heed Analyst Recommendations

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The planned share buyback by PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (BMRI) is considered capable of serving as a positive catalyst for short-term stock price movements. However, investors are reminded not to get carried away by excessive euphoria, as this corporate action is not a determinant of long-term fundamental direction. Capital market observer Reydi Octa views the buyback step as reflecting management’s confidence that the current stock valuation is at an attractive level for accumulation. This sentiment often acts as a psychological driver in the market, particularly in holding back selling pressure and triggering potential stock price rebounds. Technically, the buyback action has the potential to reduce the portion of public shares (free float) circulating in the market. However, for a large-cap issuer like BMRI, the reduction in free float is believed not to disrupt foreign investor interest. According to him, BMRI’s very strong stock liquidity and its position as one of the main portfolio holdings for global funds make the risk of declining foreign interest relatively small, as long as the ownership structure does not change extremely. “Indeed, technically, a buyback can reduce free float. Nevertheless, for a large stock like BMRI, the impact on declining foreign interest is not significant because its liquidity remains very strong and it is part of the main portfolio for global funds,” he explained. Furthermore, Reydi emphasised that the buyback is not a fundamental factor capable of sustainably lifting the stock price. Its effect is more short-term in nature and does not always reflect improved company performance. Therefore, retail investors are advised to remain rational in making decisions. “From a price perspective, the buyback tends to be a short-term positive catalyst, holding downside, triggering rebounds but not a long-term fundamental factor. For retail investors, the key is not to FOMO,” he said. He added that a wiser strategy is to enter when the valuation is still undervalued before sentiment strengthens, or to utilise the buyback momentum for short-term trading, rather than chasing prices amid market euphoria. “A wiser strategy is to enter when the valuation is still cheap before euphoria, or to utilise the momentum for short-term trading,” Reydi stressed. In agreement, Investment Specialist at PT Korea Investment and Sekuritas Indonesia (KISI), Azharys Hardian, stated that BMRI’s share buyback plan worth Rp 1.7 trillion will not have a significant impact on market structure. This value is relatively small because it is equivalent to only about 0.398 percent of the company’s total market capitalisation, thus not large enough to materially affect the balance of share supply and demand. “BMRI’s buyback plan worth Rp 1.7 trillion has a minimal impact on market structure because it only represents about 0.398 percent of the total market capitalisation,” Azharys said when contacted by Kompas.com on Thursday night (9/4/2026). Regarding whether the buyback will drive up BMRI’s stock price, Azharys assessed that this corporate action functions more as a company strategy to manage capital structure and provide a confidence signal regarding stock valuation, rather than as a factor capable of aggressively moving prices in the market. “This corporate action functions more as a signal of management’s confidence in the company’s valuation rather than a significant price driver,” he continued.