BMKG Warns of Potential Extreme Weather Until 16 March: Beware of Hydrometeorological Disasters

The Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) forecasts that most regions of Indonesia face potential rainfall of light to heavy intensity over the coming week, specifically during 10–16 March 2026. This condition is driven by active atmospheric dynamics that trigger the growth of rain clouds across various areas.

Based on BMKG’s weekly weather outlook report, extremely heavy rainfall previously affected several regions on 6–9 March 2026. Data recorded rainfall in Banten reaching 141.8 mm per day and East Jakarta at 123.4 mm per day. Additionally, heavy rain also occurred in South Sulawesi, Bengkulu, Jambi, North Sumatra, and East Java.

The high intensity of rainfall is influenced by the strengthening of the Asian Monsoon, which brings moist air masses to Indonesian territory. “The high intensity of rainfall during this period, particularly in southern Indonesia, is influenced by the strengthening Asian Monsoon, which drives wind flow from the South China Sea southward through the Karimata Strait towards Java,” BMKG stated in its official release.

Beyond the monsoon factor, the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) passing through parts of Indonesian territory also increases westerly wind anomalies. This is supported by atmospheric lability and sufficiently high humidity levels, particularly in western Java.

BMKG predicts that the MJO phenomenon will shift to phases 6 and 7 in the Western Pacific region, making rain cloud formation more dominant in eastern Indonesia. Meanwhile, atmospheric waves such as Kelvin and Equatorial Rossby waves are forecasted to remain active in Sumatra, northern Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua.

BMKG is monitoring the presence of Tropical Cyclone Seed 95W in the Pacific Ocean north of Papua. “This cyclone seed induces the formation of convergence and confluence zones in the Pacific Ocean north of Halmahera Island to north of West Papua,” BMKG stated.

For the period of 10–12 March 2026, moderate to heavy rainfall has potential to spread from Aceh, Java Island, to Papua. Specifically, BMKG has set alert status for heavy to extremely heavy rainfall in various regions.

Entering the period of 13–16 March 2026, similar rainfall potential will continue to threaten most areas of Indonesia.

BMKG urges the public to heighten vigilance against potential hydrometeorological disasters such as floods, landslides, and fallen trees caused by these extreme weather conditions. The public is asked to continue monitoring weather forecast developments through BMKG’s official channels to anticipate any changes in conditions that may occur at any time.