BMKG Warns of Increased Drought and Forest Fire Risks Due to El Niño

JAKARTA - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has warned that the risk of drought and forest and land fires (karhutla) in Indonesia will increase due to the El Niño phenomenon in the second half of 2026. BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani stated that the dry season could also arrive earlier and last longer, with overall climate conditions in 2026 expected to be drier than normal. “It should be understood that the dry season and El Niño are two different phenomena. The dry season is a climatological cycle, but when it coincides with El Niño, rainfall will decrease significantly, and conditions will become much drier,” Faisal said on Thursday (9/4/2026), quoted from Antara. ENSO is a global climate phenomenon characterised by changes in sea surface temperatures and air pressure in the tropical Pacific Ocean, consisting of three main phases: El Niño (warming), La Niña (cooling), and neutral. These changes affect weather patterns in various regions of the world, including Indonesia, where El Niño generally leads to reduced rainfall and increased risks of drought and forest fires. In line with these conditions, BMKG has recorded 1,601 hotspots in Indonesia up to early April 2026, higher than the same period in previous years. As a mitigation step, BMKG is strengthening preventive approaches through Weather Modification Operations (OMC) using land rewetting methods, particularly in peat-prone areas. “When the groundwater level in peatlands begins to drop, BMKG immediately carries out weather modification to maintain soil moisture so that it does not easily catch fire,” he said. Faisal also emphasised the importance of cross-sectoral preparedness, both by local governments and communities, to anticipate the increased risk of forest fires in line with the development of these climate conditions.