BMKG Warns of Higher Forest and Land Fire Risk in 2026 as the Dry Season Becomes Drier

Fri, 06 Mar 2026, 15:20 WIB | By Gana Buana | Source: MEDIA_INDONESIA | Regulation

BMKG warns of potentially drier weather in 2026, heightening awareness of forest and land fires (karhutla). The condition is triggered by the end of the La Niña phase and a shift to a neutral climate.

BMKG head Teuku Faisal Fathani said that Indonesia’s weather in 2026 from April onward will be influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole, which are in a neutral phase. The conditions indicate rainfall is likely to be lower than the previous year.

‘That means we must be prepared because the challenge of karhutla this year will be heavier due to drier conditions, even slightly below the climatological 30-year average,’ Faisal said in Jakarta on Friday (6 March).

He explained equatorial regions such as Riau, Jambi and West Kalimantan are currently experiencing a short dry spell. BMKG along with Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) are leveraging this momentum to carry out Weather Modification Operation (OMC).

This step aims to reduce artificial rainfall to moisten peatlands so they become saturated with water before the dry period peaks in June to August. Meanwhile, southern regions such as Java and Bali are predicted to enter the dry season in mid-March.

Minister of Forestry Raja Juli Antoni reported that collaborative efforts in 2025 successfully reduced the extent of karhutla to 359,619 hectares, down from 376,805 hectares in 2024. This reduction is the result of hard work by Manggala Agni, TNI-Polri, and Masyarakat Peduli Api.

BMKG also monitors the four-year El Niño cycle expected to occur in 2027. If this phenomenon coincides with the strengthening of the Australian Monsoon that brings dry air masses, Indonesia could face a far more extreme dry season in the future.

Based on BMKG monitoring, 206 hotspot points linked to karhutla detected in several districts in West Kalimantan. Of the 11 districts, total karhutla area is 1,041.74 hectares.

PTPN IV PalmCo strengthens Karhutla mitigation 2026 through collaboration with TNI-Polri and AI-based digital monitoring ARFINA.

Efforts to extinguish forest and land fires (karhutla) in Riau continue intensively. Of eight karhutla locations in Riau, Pelalawan Regency is the most affected area.

View JSON | Print