BMKG: Rain Still Poses High Risk Across Java to Nusa Tenggara Ahead of Eid
The Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) has predicted medium to high rainfall across several Indonesian regions in the lead-up to the Eid al-Fitr holiday exodus and break in 2026. BMKG head Teuku Faisal Fathani stated that whilst March rainfall is generally moderate, several provinces require heightened vigilance against the potential for very high rainfall.
“We need to monitor three provinces with the potential for very high rainfall: West Java, Central Java, and South Sulawesi,” he said during a hearing session with Commission V of the Indonesian Parliament on Wednesday, 11 March.
He explained that Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara regions remain at risk of fairly high rainfall this week before conditions gradually improve in the following week.
According to Faisal, atmospheric dynamics continue to influence weather conditions throughout the Eid period. These factors include the Asian monsoon bringing moist air masses, atmospheric waves, and the potential formation of tropical cyclone precursors south of Indonesia.
“In the second week of March there is potential for increased rainfall, but after that it is expected to decline,” he said.
BMKG predicts the periods 11–20 March and 21–30 March will be dominated by light to moderate rain.
During Eid, weather conditions are forecast to be overcast with potential rainfall in several areas. BMKG is also monitoring the development of tropical cyclone Nuri, formed from cyclone precursor 95W. The cyclone is expected to move away from Indonesian territory.
“Cyclone Nuri is estimated to move northward or eastward, away from Indonesian territory, but will continue to have indirect impacts on weather and sea conditions,” Faisal said.
These indirect impacts are potentially felt in North Maluku, West Papua, Southwest Papua, and Papua regions. BMKG also warns of potential moderate sea waves measuring 1.25–2.5 metres in March across several waters, particularly in the western Indian Ocean off Aceh to Lampung and south of Banten to Nusa Tenggara.
Additionally, there is potential for tidal flooding due to the new moon phenomenon on 19 March and a perigee phenomenon on 22 March, which can increase maximum sea levels in coastal areas. To reduce the impact of extreme weather, BMKG is conducting weather modification operations in several regions.
These efforts reportedly reduced rainfall intensity by 21% at the Halim post, nearly 50% at the Sultan Mahmud Badaruddin II post in Palembang, and approximately 41% at the Ahmad Yani post in Semarang. BMKG will also conduct weather modification operations around major ferry terminals on 17–18 March to support smooth holiday travel flows.
“The hope is that this activity can control heavy rain, strong winds, and high waves in port areas that will be crowded with holiday travellers,” Faisal said.
BMKG affirmed that it will continue updating weather information for land, sea, and air transport through various digital platforms and support from 191 technical implementation units across Indonesia to ensure smooth travel during the Eid al-Fitr holiday period.