BMKG Predicts Peak of Prolonged Dry Season in August, Several Regions at Risk of Drought

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The Indonesian Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) predicts that the peak of the dry season in Indonesia will occur in August 2026. Several regions, particularly those south of the Equator, are at risk of experiencing a longer and drier drought than normal conditions. “In the second semester of this year, around July, the conditions are still neutral, then we will enter a weak to moderate El Niño,” said BMKG Head Teuku Faisal Fathani, at the RI House of Representatives Building, on Monday (13/4/2026). “Thus, the peak of the dry season will be in August, with the majority of regions in Indonesia peaking in August,” he added. Regions entering the transitional period are mostly in eastern Indonesia. “Starting from eastern Indonesia, East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara, Bali, then Java Island especially the coastal areas, followed by the highlands of Java to southern Sumatra,” Faisal explained. Faisal added that this year’s dry season is expected to be longer and drier compared to the 30-year climatological average. Therefore, he emphasised the importance of preparedness by all parties to anticipate the impacts. “This is what we are trying to do to increase our preparedness, mitigate so that the government and everyone is ready to avoid or reduce the occurrence of drought, then forest and land fires, maintain food self-sufficiency, ensure the effectiveness of reservoir operations, and so on,” he stated. Meanwhile, Faisal continued, for the potential of forest and land fires (karhutla), there are six provinces that need to be vigilant. “So, for karhutla itself, there are six provinces most affected, starting from Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, then West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan to South Kalimantan. These are the six provinces,” he said. Faisal added that although the dry season has begun, rain is still possible in some regions. However, the intensity will be relatively low. “So, will there be rain during the dry season? Yes, rain is also possible, but not more than 150 millimetres per month. That is what is called the dry season condition,” he said. Therefore, rain is still possible even during the transition to the dry season. “It depends on the region. Some have already entered the dry season, some are just starting or a bit delayed. But in general, almost 50 percent of the seasonal zones in Indonesia are entering the dry season earlier, around April,” he concluded.