BMKG: Heavy rainfall chances in NTB to decrease from mid-March

Mataram — The Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has stated that the likelihood of heavy rainfall in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) will begin to diminish as the region enters the post-peak rainy season phase in mid-March 2026.

“The probability of rainfall with intensity exceeding 100 millimetres per ten-day period ranges only between 30 and 50 per cent,” said Suci Agustiarini, forecaster at the BMKG NTB Climatology Station, in Mataram on Wednesday.

During the second ten-day period of March 2026, from 11 to 20 March, areas expected to experience heavy rainfall are estimated to be limited to small portions of Central Lombok, East Lombok, Sumbawa, and Bima regencies.

Agustiarini noted that moderate-category rainfall with intensity exceeding 50 millimetres remains likely to occur across most of NTB with a probability of approximately 60 to over 90 per cent.

Although rainfall is still expected to affect many areas, she added, the likelihood of high-intensity rainfall is beginning to decrease as the region enters the post-peak phase of the wet season.

“There is still potential for moderate-intensity rainfall in mid-March 2026, and the public is urged to remain vigilant against the potential for extreme weather events,” stated Agustiarini.

The highest rainfall was recorded at the Tanjung rain gauge in North Lombok Regency, measuring 172 millimetres per ten-day period.

Monitoring results for consecutive days without rainfall across NTB generally remain in the very short category, ranging from approximately one to five days.

“Very short consecutive days without rainfall indicate that rainfall activity continues to occur fairly frequently,” noted Agustiarini.

According to earlier reporting, approximately 84 per cent of West Nusa Tenggara’s territory is entering the early dry season in April 2026, with the peak dry season expected to occur in August 2026.

BMKG has stated that approximately 70 to 73 per cent of NTB’s territory is experiencing an earlier onset of the dry season compared to normal conditions. In addition to arriving earlier, the dry season is also expected to be drier than the climatological average.