BMKG: Heavy Rain and Intense Heat Continue to Threaten Multiple Regions Over Coming Week
Indonesia’s Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) forecasts weather conditions during the Eid homecoming period of 17-23 March 2026 will continue to be marked by a combination of rain and intense heat.
In its latest report, BMKG noted that in recent days, light to heavy rainfall has continued across several regions. The highest rainfall recorded reached 90 mm per day in Central Sulawesi, followed by Aceh at 85 mm per day and North Sumatra at 84.2 mm per day.
These conditions are influenced by atmospheric dynamics such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as well as equatorial Rossby and Kelvin waves that increase thundercloud development, particularly across central to eastern Indonesia.
On the other hand, hot weather has also been recorded as quite significant. Maximum temperatures reached 37.2°C in West Java, 36.4°C in Kalimantan, and 36.2°C in Banten. BMKG explained that these conditions occur due to reduced cloud cover in several regions resulting from the shifting distribution of rainfall towards eastern Indonesia.
“This is indicated by positive OLR anomalies that show relatively minimal cloud growth, allowing solar radiation to be more optimal and surface temperature to increase,” BMKG stated.
Entering the coming week, the interaction of the MJO and atmospheric waves is expected to remain active, with effects extending from Java to Papua. These conditions have the potential to increase rainfall in central and eastern Indonesian regions, whilst parts of Sumatra and Java are likely to experience drier conditions.
BMKG also noted wind convergence and deceleration patterns from Kalimantan to Sulawesi, as well as cyclonic circulation in West Kalimantan that further support thundercloud formation.
For the period 17-20 March, moderate to heavy rainfall has the potential to occur across most of Indonesia, including West Java, East Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan and Papua. Several regions such as Central Java, East Java, East Nusa Tenggara, East Kalimantan and South Sulawesi are classified as alert status for heavy to very heavy rainfall.
Meanwhile, during 21-23 March, rainfall potential continues with moderate to heavy intensity across various regions, including Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua.
BMKG cautioned that heavy rainfall could be accompanied by lightning, thunder and strong winds that may disrupt travel, particularly during the Eid homecoming exodus.
“BMKG urges the public and stakeholders to continue heightening vigilance against potential extreme weather that could result in hydrometeorological disasters,” the agency stated.
Furthermore, those travelling during the homecoming are urged to exercise greater caution regarding potential travel disruptions from heavy rain and strong winds, whether on land, sea or air routes. Rapid weather changes also require attention when planning outdoor activities, including homecoming travel and tourism activities.
BMKG also reminds the public to regularly monitor current weather information through official channels to minimise risks from extreme weather impacts during the homecoming period.