BMKG Clarifies 2026 Dry Season Will Be Drier: Not the Worst in 30 Years
Rumours are circulating that the 2026 dry season in Indonesia will be the most severe in the past 30 years. BMKG states that this is untrue, and emphasises that the 2026 dry season will be drier compared to the 30-year average.
The Director of Climate Change Information at BMKG, Fachri Radjab, said that the 2026 dry season will be drier than the 30-year average or normal. One influencing factor is the activity of El Niño.
“The 2026 dry season is predicted to be drier compared to the normal or average over 30 years, so it is not the worst in the past 30 years,” Fachri said when confirmed on Wednesday (15/4/2026).
Fachri then gave examples of the 2026 dry season compared to the dry seasons in 1997, 2005, 2015, or 2019. He said the dry seasons in those years were drier than the 2026 dry season.
“During the 2026 dry season, around 400 climate zones (57.2% of climate zones) in Indonesia (out of 699 climate zones across Indonesia) are predicted to experience a longer dry season period compared to the normal (average),” he said.
“One of the causes is that this year’s dry season is influenced by the active El Niño with weak to moderate intensity,” he added.
BMKG also clarified on its X account that the issue of the 2026 dry season being the worst in the last 30 years is not true. BMKG explained that rainfall during the 2026 dry season will be below normal compared to the last 30 years.
“In fact, BMKG states that rainfall during the 2026 dry season is predicted to be below normal, meaning lower than the 30-year climatological average,” BMKG wrote on its X account.
BMKG also stated comparisons: the dry seasons that occurred in 1997, 2005, 2015, or 2019 were drier compared to the predicted 2026 dry season. However, this does not mean this year’s dry season is the most severe.
“This means that this condition does not necessarily indicate the worst dry season in 30 years, but rather shows the potential for less rainfall than usual,” BMKG explained.