BMKG: Bali faces potential extreme drought, longer and drier conditions

The Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) through its Bali Climatology Station has forecast the potential for an extreme dry season in Bali due to extended duration and reduced rainfall resulting from El Niño phenomena.

“Between July and October there will be weak El Niño phenomena, which presents a significant risk of prolonged or extreme drought,” said Trayi Budi Samantu, forecaster at the Bali Climatology Station, during a presentation on the 2026 dry season held virtually in Denpasar, Bali, on Thursday.

The regions in Bali forecast to be most vulnerable to extreme drought are northern Bali, encompassing Buleleng Regency from west to east, Nusa Penida Island, and southern Klungkung Regency.

The areas in Bali expected to experience the latest onset of the dry season are central Bali, with the entire island experiencing drought by August 2026, representing a total duration of approximately six months beginning from March 2026.

In contrast, the 2025 dry season will be shorter, occurring between June-July and ending in August-September, lasting approximately four months.

The agency forecasts that average temperatures during the dry season will remain close to normal levels, below 35 degrees Celsius. However, BMKG will continue to monitor temperature developments on a ten-daily and monthly basis.

“The 2026 dry season forecast is characterised as below-normal conditions at 90 per cent probability. This below-normal characteristic requires careful management, particularly in areas at risk of drought,” he stated.

The agency has therefore provided recommendations to regional governments, the agricultural sector, businesses, and communities to mitigate water resource management, conserve water, distribute water for irrigation systems, and prepare for drought and land fire prevention.