BMKG and BRIN Reveal Prediction for Eid al-Fitr 2026 or 1 Syawal 1447 Hijri
Jakarta – Indonesia’s celebration of Eid al-Fitr 1447 Hijri is expected to differ from initial predictions, similar to the situation with the commencement of Ramadan in 2026.
Muhammadiyah has set 1 Syawal 1447 Hijri on 20 March 2026. However, the government will only announce the official date following an isbat (judicial determination) session scheduled for next week.
What are the predictions from the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) and the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) for this year’s Eid celebration?
BRIN researcher Thomas Djamaluddin stated that 1 Syawal is likely to fall on Saturday, 21 March 2026. He explained that the position of the crescent moon on Thursday, 19 March 2026 at sunset across Southeast Asia will not meet the criteria established by the Ministers of Religious Affairs of Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore (MABIMS).
For reference, the MABIMS criteria establish the beginning of the Hijri calendar periods such as Ramadan and Syawal based on crescent moon visibility with a height of 3 degrees and a minimum elongation angle of 6.4 degrees.
“At sunset on 19 March 2026 across Southeast Asia, the crescent moon position will not meet the new MABIMS criteria, therefore 1 Syawal 1447 equals 21 March 2026,” Thomas stated.
However, different results may be obtained using other criteria, such as those employed by Turkey, which would place Eid al-Fitr on Friday, 20 March 2026.
Meanwhile, BMKG presented observational data regarding the crescent moon for determining the beginning of the Hijri month. The crescent moon position on 19 March 2026 is estimated not to meet the MABIMS criteria.
At that time, the crescent moon’s altitude at sunset will range from 0.91 degrees in Merauke, Papua to 3.13 degrees in Sabang, Aceh. The geocentric elongation at sunset is estimated to be between 4.54 degrees in Waris, Papua and 6.1 degrees in Banda Aceh.
BMKG also cautioned about astronomical objects that could potentially interfere with crescent moon observations. During the rukyat (observation) process, observers must consider the possibility of planets or bright stars appearing close to the Moon, which could be misinterpreted as the crescent moon.
Based on the data and referencing the MABIMS criteria, the crescent moon is unlikely to be visible on 19 March 2026. Under these conditions, Eid al-Fitr this year will fall on 21 March 2026.