BMKG: 2026 Dry Season to Be Drier Than 30-Year Average
Jakarta (ANTARA) - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has announced that the 2026 dry season has the potential to be drier compared to the average over the past 30 years.
Director of Climate Change at BMKG, Fachri Rajab, explained that in addition to being drier, the dry season this year is forecasted to arrive earlier with a longer duration.
“If compared to the 30-year average, this year’s dry season is relatively drier. However, it should be underlined that this means drier than average, not the worst dry season in the past 30 years,” said Fachri during a discussion marking the 76th World Meteorological Day at the West Java Climatology Station “Observing Today, Protecting Tomorrow” in Jakarta on Tuesday.
Fachri clarified recent public information suggesting the 2026 dry season as the most extreme, with some parties even dubbing it with terrifying names like Godzilla Dry Season or Godzilla El Niño.
BMKG does not use such terms, he said, and assesses that the phenomenon described is not entirely accurate, tending to be exaggerated when conveyed to the public.
This year’s dry season conditions are influenced by the activity of the El Niño phenomenon, which begins to emerge from late April to early May 2026; it is the presence of this phenomenon that affects the reduced intensity of rainfall in Indonesian regions.
“It should also be known that El Niño and the dry season are two different things. Although El Niño affects the intensity of the dry season, the dry season is not because of El Niño,” he said.
He explained that with or without El Niño, Indonesia still has a dry season throughout the year, given that the country has a tropical climate with only rainy and dry seasons.
The intensity of El Niño is estimated to increase from weak to moderate in the third quarter of 2026, specifically around August, September, to October, as analysed by the BMKG climatology team.
Fachri emphasised that this information must be taken seriously, but there is no need for exaggeration or even panic. Cross-sector and community collaboration for mitigation is the most important thing, so that the availability of clean water and the sustainability of agriculture and plantations are maintained.
“Once again, we convey that this year our dry season is indeed relatively drier compared to the average, and there is the El Niño phenomenon. But El Niño is only weak, moderate, strong, and very strong El Niño; there is no other El Niño, no Pokémon El Niño, no King Kong El Niño, that doesn’t exist,” said BMKG Climate Change Director Fachri Rajab.