Bitcoin Briefly Corrects Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty: What Lies Ahead?

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Bitcoin (BTC) prices corrected amid rising geopolitical uncertainty following statements from US President Donald Trump, though analysts believe the strengthening trend still has a chance to continue until the end of the year.

Tokocrypto analyst Fyqieh Fachrur said that Bitcoin’s current movements indicate the market does not fully believe in short-term optimism narratives.

Instead of chasing gains, market participants tend to adopt a defensive approach and await further developments in global geopolitical dynamics before determining the next trend direction.

This situation was evident when Bitcoin’s price fell from the $68,000 range to around $66,000 after the market reacted negatively to Trump’s statements, which offered no certainty on de-escalating the conflict with Iran.

“The market had previously anticipated the possibility of conflict de-escalation, so most of the positive sentiment was already reflected in the price,” he said in a written statement, quoted on Friday (3/4/2026).

According to him, this correction marks the fragility of market sentiment.

This is because intraday data shows that the rally was not supported by strong accumulation.

The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicator shows dominance of selling pressure throughout the trading session, while the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicates asset distribution, where market participants use price increases to exit positions rather than add exposure.

Meanwhile, external pressures worsened the situation.

A surge in oil prices above 5 per cent, a strengthening US dollar, and rising bond yields prompted global investors to reduce exposure to risky assets, including crypto.

In the derivatives market, caution signals also strengthened.

Bitcoin futures open interest declined rapidly, followed by weakening transaction volumes, reflecting reduced trader aggressiveness amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Fyqieh assessed that this condition reflects the “sell the news” phenomenon, where positive expectations were anticipated by the market in advance but not followed by corresponding realisations.

“When Trump’s speech provided no certainty, market participants chose to reduce risk. This is evident from the dominance of distribution volume and the decline in open interest in the derivatives market,” he explained.