Bitcoin and Peers Weather the Storm, But Danger Alarms Ring Loud
Bitcoin and Peers Weather the Storm, But Danger Alarms Ring Loud
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The decision to reclose the Strait of Hormuz is directly impacting the energy supply chain and triggering a surge in global crude oil prices to the current level of US$91.
This situation is systematically affecting the movement of financial assets broadly, forcing institutional and retail investors to recalibrate their portfolio risk exposures.
Amid this conventional market turmoil, Bitcoin (BTC) is observed to be moving quite stably and consolidating in the range of US$74,000. This stability indicates that the market senses uncertainty still lies ahead due to the ongoing war.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Undergo Measured Adjustments
Based on the latest trading data, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at the level of US$74,472.01. Although experiencing a daily correction of -1.35%, BTC still records a weekly growth of +4.58%.
Its resilience in this range shows that normal profit-taking actions following last week’s rise have been balanced by market demand emerging from the latest geopolitical escalation. Overall, Bitcoin’s market capitalisation is still able to maintain its stability compared to other risky assets.
A similar movement is also occurring with Ethereum (ETH), which is currently at the level of US$2,277.73. ETH records a daily decline of -2.55%, but still manages to maintain positive performance of +3.53% over the last seven days.
This indicates a measured price adjustment, without signs of massive liquidity withdrawal from large-cap crypto assets.
Altcoin Dynamics: Capital Rotation Tends to Focus on Liquidity
In the altcoin sector, market movements show a much more selective capital rotation trend. Assets with established market capitalisation appear to be the primary choice for investors. XRP records a weekly increase of +5.75% to the level of US$1.40. Binance Coin (BNB) rises +3.93% to US$620.94, and Solana (SOL) strengthens +2.26% to US$84.11.
On the other hand, Hyperliquid (HYPE), which previously recorded a rally, is now undergoing a consolidation phase with a weekly correction of -1.75% to US$41.08.
This variation in performance across sectors provides clear indications that in situations of macro volatility, market participants tend to move their funds to ecosystems deemed to have stronger fundamentals and liquidity, while limiting exposure to high-risk assets.
Macro Catalysts: Energy Prices and China’s Interest Rate Strategy
The renewed escalation of US-Iran tensions presents new challenges from a macroeconomic perspective, particularly regarding energy costs. The surge in global crude oil prices has the potential to affect core inflation rates in various advanced economies.
This sticky inflation condition, due to logistics and energy costs, which is difficult to reduce, could be a heavy consideration for central banks, such as the Fed, to keep benchmark interest rates high for a longer period.
Meanwhile, in the Asian region, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has decided to maintain the one-year loan prime rate (1Y LPR) at a constant level of 3.00%.
This decision reflects a cautious stance by monetary authorities in facing global inflation risks, as well as an effort to maintain the stability of the Yuan exchange rate and domestic banking net interest margins (NIM).
China’s steady interest rates signal that expectations of new liquidity stimulus entering risky financial markets are relatively limited this quarter.
Market Outlook: Long-Term Projection Targets Remain Maintained
Although the current geopolitical sentiment and risk premium are supporting Bitcoin’s price above the US$74,000 level, long-term macroeconomic projections have not changed.
The price increases in recent weeks are considered purely reactive to external geopolitical conditions. This movement has not yet confirmed a change in fundamental liquidity pointing towards the start of a new structural long bull market cycle.
Considering projections of monetary tightening and potential global economic slowdown ahead, the main target for strategic investment accumulation remains maintained in the price range of US$40,000 to US$45,000.
This range is projected as the cycle bottom area of the four-year cycle expected to occur in the third or fourth quarter of 2026. Therefore, a cautious approach with a wait-and-see strategy and disciplined cash liquidity management remains the most relevant option to implement at present.