Bids Surge, Pefindo Says Government Bond Outlook Positive
Jakarta (ANTARA) - The Head of Research Division at PT Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo), Suhindarto, stated that the outlook for government bonds or State Securities (SUN) remains relatively good amid pressures from global geopolitical turmoil.
This outlook is also reflected in the SUN auction results, which reached Rp78.4 trillion on 14 April 2026, a 34 percent jump from Rp58.22 trillion in the 31 March 2026 auction, according to the Ministry of Finance report.
“But, all in all, the outlook (for SUN) is actually still relatively good; indeed, the government’s high budget needs will ultimately push the yield somewhat higher,” Suhindarto said during Pefindo’s online press conference in Jakarta on Wednesday.
He continued that this positive outlook is also supported by the relatively solid condition of domestic investors who can meet the SUN offerings, which also has the potential to hold back SUN yield increases from rising too high.
“With the domestic investor conditions themselves still relatively solid and able to respond to the available offerings, it is hoped this can serve as its own buffer so that the yield does not rise too much,” Suhindarto said.
Suhindarto explained that SUN yields actually still have the potential to decline at the beginning of the year; however, the escalation of conflict between the United States (US) and Iran has narrowed the room for such declines.
He added that this narrowing of the downside space aligns with expectations that the US central bank, the Fed, will only cut its benchmark interest rate once in 2026, or possibly not at all.
“With those conditions, the performance of SBN yields themselves is unlikely to differ much from last year. There might even be a slight surge when this war risk increases,” Suhindarto said.
The Ministry of Finance reported that the SUN auction results reached Rp78.4 trillion on 14 April 2026, a 34 percent jump from Rp58.22 trillion in the 31 March 2026 auction.
In addition, the quality of demand also increased sharply, with the bid-to-cover ratio for series FR0107 and FR0108 reaching 1.8 to 2 times, compared to a ratio approaching 1 time in the previous auction.
This difference is important because a ratio approaching 1 indicates thin demand, while a ratio of 2 reflects genuine investor appetite with sufficient room.
Alongside the surging government bond auction results, this reflects that global investor confidence in Indonesia is recovering, and the government is working to maintain it.