BI Responds After Fitch Cuts Indonesia's Debt Outlook to Negative

Jakarta – Fitch Ratings adjusted Indonesia’s credit rating outlook to negative on 4 March 2026. The BBB rating level for Indonesia signals the lower bound of investment grade. In response to the projection, Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo explained that the affirmation of Indonesia’s BBB rating reflects global confidence in the country’s economic fundamentals, which remain strong.

The outlook adjustment is not believed to reflect a weakening of Indonesia’s economic fundamentals. ‘Indonesia’s economic prospects remain robust and resilient. The strength of the economy is reflected in domestic growth that remains solid amid rising global uncertainty, inflation that remains contained including core inflation that stays low, and the rupiah’s value that continues to strengthen through exchange-rate stabilisation policies in the offshore NDF market as well as spot and DNDF transactions in the domestic market,’ he said in an official statement cited on Wednesday (4 March 2026).

Perry also explained that financial-system stability remains well maintained, supported by adequate liquidity, banking-capital that remains high, and low credit risk. Additionally, the broad digitisation of the payments system, underpinned by stable infrastructure and a healthy industrial structure, also supports economic growth.

‘Going forward, Bank Indonesia expects the medium-term growth outlook for Indonesia to remain solid and to trend upwards, supported by contained inflation,’ he added. Bank Indonesia explained that in 2026, economic growth is projected to be in the range of 4.9-5.7% and to rise in 2027, with inflation staying within the target band.

Indonesia’s external resilience is also expected to remain strong amid global volatility, with the Balance of Payments (BoP) healthy and backed by a solid trade balance performance. ‘BoP in 2026 is expected to remain sound with a current-account deficit that remains in the range of 0.9-0.1% of GDP,’ he wrote.