BI Rate Expected to be Held Steady, These Banking Stocks are Attractive to Collect

JAKARTA - Ahead of the Bank Indonesia Board of Governors Meeting (RDG BI), the BI reference rate is predicted to remain at its latest level. This opens up space for banks to maximise transmission and alleviate margin pressures, thereby driving the banking sector into a phase of price recovery in the capital market. At the close of trading on Friday (17 April 2026), banking stocks were still recording price corrections compared to the beginning of the year (year-to-date/ytd). Among the big banks, PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) experienced the deepest plunge, with a 20.43 per cent ytd correction to Rp 6,425. Since the beginning of the year, the central bank has maintained the BI rate at 4.75 per cent. However, this level already reflects a reduction of up to 125 basis points since January 2025. Nevertheless, the transmission has remained somewhat limited, with new lending rates falling by 40 basis points and one-month deposit rates dropping by 64 basis points since January 2025 as of February 2026. Capital market observer and Founder of Republik Investor, Hendra Wardana, noted that previously, the cost of funds (COF) had already risen first due to tight competition in mobilising third-party funds (DPK). If BI decides to continue holding the interest rate steady, Hendra stated that pressure on margins could ease, allowing bank profitability to return to greater stability in the coming quarters. From a fundamental perspective, he said that interest rate stability is a positive catalyst for the banking sector. His prediction is that credit growth will remain solid in the range of high single digits to low double digits. “This is driven by demand from the consumer and corporate segments that are starting to recover,” Hendra told Kontan on Saturday (18 April 2026). As such, he added, banking sector earnings performance could continue to grow healthily, albeit not as aggressively as during periods of low interest rates. That said, from a market perspective, Hendra views the recent pressure on banking stock prices as largely influenced by global sentiments and profit-taking actions by foreign investors, rather than any deterioration in fundamentals. Associate Director of Research and Investment at Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas, Maximilianus Nico Demus, also stated that the market has already anticipated interest rate stability. This is because the rupiah remains weak at present, and market volatility is still high.