BI forecasts stable retail sales performance in April 2026

Jakarta (ANTARA) - Bank Indonesia (BI), through the results of the Retail Sales Survey (SPE), forecasts that retail sales performance will remain stable in April 2026, with the Real Sales Index (IPR) recorded at 231.0. This forecast for the index represents a decline of -10.0 percent on a monthly basis (month-to-month/mtm) from the March 2026 IPR realisation and a decrease of -1.9 percent on an annual basis (year-on-year/yoy) from the April 2025 IPR realisation. Executive Director of the BI Communications Department, Ramdan Denny Prakoso, stated in Jakarta on Tuesday that the April 2026 IPR is driven by continued annual growth in sales for the spare parts and accessories group, other household equipment, and the clothing sub-group. In detail, the spare parts and accessories group in April 2026 is projected to grow by 18.8 percent (yoy); other household equipment by 1.4 percent (yoy); and the clothing sub-group by 4.4 percent (yoy). Sales in other groups are projected to be in contraction territory, particularly in the cultural and recreational goods group; food, beverages, and tobacco; and motor vehicle fuel, at -1.1 percent (yoy); -2.1 percent (yoy); and -2.8 percent (yoy), respectively. On a monthly basis, the projected decline in retail sales performance for April 2026 is influenced by the normalisation of public demand following the National Religious Holiday (HBKN) period of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr 1447 H. The decline occurs across all group coverages, with the deepest contractions in the cultural and recreational goods group (-14.1 percent mtm); food, beverages, and tobacco (-10.7 percent mtm); and information and communication equipment (-10.9 percent mtm). Regarding the March 2026 realisation, the IPR was recorded at 256.7. This performance was mainly driven by sales growth in the spare parts and accessories group (growing 15.5 percent yoy); cultural and recreational goods (growing 14.8 percent yoy); and food, beverages, and tobacco (growing 4.7 percent yoy). On a monthly basis, retail sales in March 2026 grew by 10.3 percent (mtm), higher than February 2026’s growth of 4.1 percent (mtm). This increase was supported by sales performance across all groups, particularly the cultural and recreational goods group (12.9 percent mtm); food, beverages, and tobacco (10.8 percent mtm); motor vehicle fuel (9.3 percent mtm); and the clothing sub-group (26.2 percent mtm), in line with increased public demand during the HBKN Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr 1447 H period. From a price perspective, inflationary pressures for the next three and six months, namely June and September 2026, are projected to increase. This is reflected in the General Price Expectations Index (IEH) for June and September 2026, recorded at 175.6 and 163.2 respectively, higher than the IEH for May and August 2026 at 157.4 and 157.2 respectively, driven by rising raw material prices.