Beware of Rating Risks and Middle East Conflict, Here is Trading Strategy as IHSG Wavers
Jakarta. Indonesia’s Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) closed at 7,585 at the end of trading on Friday, 6 March 2026, down approximately 7.89 per cent compared to the previous week.
The index decline was accompanied by significant foreign investor outflows, with capital outflows of approximately Rp 2.5 trillion recorded in the regular market.
David Kurniawan, Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas, assessed that pressure on the stock market was driven by a combination of global and domestic sentiment. One major global factor stemmed from Fitch Ratings’ decision to revise Indonesia’s sovereign debt outlook from stable to negative.
“This change signals that global markets are beginning to pay closer attention to fiscal discipline and the direction of government budgetary policy,” David stated in written remarks on Monday, 9 March 2026.
Markets also highlighted increasing fiscal policy risks domestically. Several economic policies were viewed as more aggressive in supporting growth, including increased credit disbursement and social spending programmes. This situation raised concerns among some investors regarding fiscal discipline and the direction of the government’s economic policy.
These conditions triggered the recent wave of foreign capital outflows from Indonesia’s stock and bond markets over recent weeks.
David projected IHSG movement for the period of 9 to 13 March 2026 to remain within a support level of 7,400 and resistance level of 7,900.
“The primary focus for market participants next week will likely remain on investor sentiment stability regarding the domestic economy, particularly following Fitch Ratings’ revision of Indonesia’s debt outlook, which has triggered caution in the market,” David said.
Market participants will also monitor whether foreign investor selling pressure begins to ease. Additionally, the movement of the rupiah’s exchange rate against the US dollar, as well as responses from Bank Indonesia and the government, will receive close attention. Movement in global commodity prices will also influence market sentiment.